Monday, June 26, 2023

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -20.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 -1.2
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 69.9% of Issues Advancing, 27.3% Declining
  • 51 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
  • 46.8%(+2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 -4.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.6 -2.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,487.2 -.32%
  • 1-Day Vix 8.8 -22.7%
  • Vix 14.2 +5.5% 
  • Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.19 -27.9%

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Monday Watch

Night Trading

  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.75 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 60.25 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 44.2 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +.7%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .22 -8.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 +.16%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, June 23, 2023

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Stocks Finish Lower on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Growth Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +2.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.7 -2.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.7 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +.35%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.8 +1.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -29.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .86 +6.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.44 +19.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.4 +1.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 389.18 +2.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 -10.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.09 +196% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 295.97 +.56%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.1 +1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 222.75 +1.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 24.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 716.0 -13.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 -3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 44.2 -.83%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.29% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.17%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour  -4.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.5 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -131.9 -39.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.2 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) -.8% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.37 -.01:  Growth Rate +3.5% unch., P/E 18.8 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% -.1 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 212.27 +.12: Growth Rate +39.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 36.0 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.36 -14.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -101.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.95% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 64.9%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 59.4%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -96 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -183 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical/industrial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal: 
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.25 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.32%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 44.5 -.12%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.7 +1.7%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 -6.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 +.13%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.