Stocks Finish Lower on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Growth Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +2.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.7 -2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.7 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +.35%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.8 +1.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 -29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .86 +6.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.44 +19.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.4 +1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 389.18 +2.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 -10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.09 +196% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 295.97 +.56%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.1 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 222.75 +1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 24.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 716.0 -13.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 -3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 44.2 -.83%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.29% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.17%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour  -4.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.5 -6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -131.9 -39.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.2 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) -.8% -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.37 -.01:  Growth Rate +3.5% unch., P/E 18.8 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% -.1 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 212.27 +.12: Growth Rate +39.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 36.0 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 -8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.36 -14.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -101.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.95% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 64.9%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 59.4%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -96 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -183 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long