Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Subsiding FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Tech/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.4 -3.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .64%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.4 +.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 163.7 +.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.7 +2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 +1.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.48 -10.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 +1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 380.2 +1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 379.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.1 +1.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.7 +.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 162.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 1136 +.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.7 +.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 22.75 basis points -6.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 728.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 83.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.4 +.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.28% +6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.7 euros/megawatt-hour  -5.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.2 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -93.1 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) -3.9% -6.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.24 +.14:  Growth Rate +3.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% -.1 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 209.07 +.32: Growth Rate +37.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 36.4 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.13 +4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -98.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.95% +18.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 68.8%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 66.3%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +123 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long