Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Close on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -.45%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .50%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.5 +2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.7 +.49%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.57%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.1 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -13.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 -6.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.28 +.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 379.60 -.59%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 377.0 -2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.1 +.14% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 294.3 +.31%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.5 +.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.8 +.48%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.38 -.1%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 25.5 basis points +2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 161.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 729.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 83.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 44.6 -1.7%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.28% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.1 euros/megawatt-hour  -7.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.9 -1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -92.2 -.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.9 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) -.6% +3.3 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.38 +.14:  Growth Rate +3.5% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% +.1 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 212.15 +3.08: Growth Rate +39.4% +2.0 percentage points, P/E 36.1 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.22 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -100.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.95% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 67.2%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 60.8%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +256 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -71 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long