Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Economic "Hard-Landing" Worries, Technical Selling, Commodity/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.1 -.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .85%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.9 -3.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 162.2 -.53%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8. -.34%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.8 +6.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -28.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.54 +71.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.6 +.27%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.4 +1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 396.0 -7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.2 +.93% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 291.9 +.45%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.7 +.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 217.5 +1.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.4 -.64%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 29.25 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 726.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 81.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.2 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.22% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.7 euros/megawatt-hour  +10.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.2 +8.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -93.1 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 +1.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +2.7% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.10 n/a:  Growth Rate +3.4% n/a, P/E 18.9 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 208.75 n/a: Growth Rate +37.2% n/a, P/E 36.9 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .22 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.17 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -97.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.77% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 66.6%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 66.6%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -208 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -104 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +159 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long