Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Optimism, China Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 -3.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.9 +1.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.8 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.54 -.63%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.9 -2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -9.6%

• NYSE Arms .75 -24.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.4 -.65%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 388.68 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 398.0 -19.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.5 -1.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 301.2 -1.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.0 basis points +2.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.2 -.24%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 221.9 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.0 -.46%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.0 basis points +10.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 726.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.2 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.25% -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.9 euros/megawatt-hour  -12.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -88.1 -5.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.8 -1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -3.5% -.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.24 +.17:  Growth Rate +3.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 20663 +4.73: Growth Rate +35.8% +3.1 percentage points, P/E 36.2 -.7
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.39 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -82.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.96% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.7%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 48.5%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +250 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long