Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Growth Concerns, Cooling FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Pharma/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 +5.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.7 -2.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.7 +.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.0 -1.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 -36.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.6 +.59%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 390.5 +.08%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 350.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.9 +.94% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 298.07 +.71%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.1 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 223.07 +.14%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -.34%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 718.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.7 -.95%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.30% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour  -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -140.2 -8.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.2 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +14.7% +15.5 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.53 +.16:  Growth Rate +3.5% unch., P/E 18.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% +.3 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 212.82 +.55: Growth Rate +39.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 35.4 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.26 +10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -101.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.95% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 66.6%(+1.7 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 61.7%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +124 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long