Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Acceleration Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -4.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .49%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.2 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.0 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 -.45%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.2 -6.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -8.0%

• NYSE Arms .86 -3.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.4 -2.77%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.7 -3.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 363.0 +13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.9 -2.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 2985.5 -.87%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.9 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 217.6 -2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 +.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 basis points +5.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 23.0 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 161.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 81.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.75 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.27% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour  +7.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.8 +16.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -138.4 +1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 -.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +13.8% -.9 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.56 +.03:  Growth Rate +3.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% -.1 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 212.88 +.06: Growth Rate +41.1% +1.3 percentage points, P/E 35.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.14 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -99.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.77% -18.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 67.2%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 58.4%(-4.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +194 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long