Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Less US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 +1.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.3 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.37 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.50 -.52%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.9 -.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 -11.5%

• NYSE Arms .77 -36.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.3 -.85%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.66 -2.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 425.0 -7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.54 -.36% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 291.54 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 174.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.2 -1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 219.77 -1.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.16 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 27.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 165.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 730.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 86.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.3 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.23% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour  +18.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.8 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -91.9 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -4.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.37 +.06:  Growth Rate +3.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 207.24 +.18: Growth Rate +36.2% +.5 percentage point, P/E 36.0 +3.0
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.13 +15.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -85.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.20% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 53.3%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 50.3%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -99 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long