Monday, July 24, 2023

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on China Stimulus Hopes, US Economic "Soft-Landing" Optimism, Technical Buying, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.9 +1.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .60%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.2 -.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 165.2 -.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.5 -2.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .83 -8.0%
  • NYSE Arms .68 -32.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.8 -.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 331.10 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 370.0 -7.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.6 +2.4% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 267.20 +1.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 160.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.3 +.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.03 -.87%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.5 -.43%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points unch.
  • TED Spread 21.25 basis points +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 727.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.4 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 114.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.5 euros/megawatt-hour  +8.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.2 +2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -138.9 -20.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.8 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(89 of 500 reporting) -.1% -5.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.42 -.16:  Growth Rate +3.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.08% -8.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +14.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 219.63 +1.67: Growth Rate +42.8% +1.1 percentage point, P/E 35.4 -1.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .02 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -104.25 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.42% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 83.1%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 67.7%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +80 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +175 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +101 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MMM)/1.73
  • (ALK)/2.71
  • (ACI)/.85
  • (ADM)/1.59
  • (AWI)/1.31
  • (AVY)/2.05
  • (BIIB)/3.78
  • (GLW)/.45
  • (DHR)/2.01
  • (DOW)/.70
  • (GE)/.46
  • (GM)/1.86
  • (HRI)/3.11
  • (KMB)/1.48
  • (NEE)/.81
  • (NUE)/5.53
  • (NVR)/103.76
  • (PCAR)/2.18
  • (PII)/2.21
  • (PHM)/2.52
  • (RTX)/1.18
  • (SHW)/2.70
  • (VZ)/1.17
After the Close: 
  • (GOOG)/1.34
  • (CALM)/1.84
  • (CNI)/1.79
  • (CB)/4.42
  • (KALU)/.46
  • (MANH)/.72
  • (MSFT)/2.55
  • (RHI)/1.13
  • (SNAP)/-.25
  • (TDOC)/-.41
  • (TXN)/1.76
  • (V)/2.11
Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

  • The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for July. 

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.91% gain in April. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July is estimated to rise to 112.0 versus 109.7 in June.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to fall to -10 versus -7 in June.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB lending data, 5Y T-Note auction and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +4.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 unch.
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 60.9% of Issues Advancing, 36.7% Declining
  • 73 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
  • 59.9%(+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 73.0 +2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.3 -.14%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,218.1 +.15%
  • 1-Day Vix 7.5 -22.8%
  • Vix 13.8 +1.2%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -17.1%
  • TRIN/Arms .76 -24.0%

Sunday, July 23, 2023

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 112.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.67%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.3 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.2 +1.3%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .42 -3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 +.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, July 22, 2023

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com: