Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.1 -2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .61%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.1 -.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.1 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.7 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -8.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +34.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.4 -1.02%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 314.12 -1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 339.0 +9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.79 -.52% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 260.5 -.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 196.65 +.90%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.78 +.32%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 22.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 168.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.8 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.19%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.0 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.7 -1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(490 of 500 reporting) -6.2%  unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.71 +.11:  Growth Rate +8.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.39 +.19: Growth Rate +46.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .41 +14.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .15 +80.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -77.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.91% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.0%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 50.1%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +22 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -.4% 2) Social Media -.4% 3) Regional Banks -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JXN, EVRG, PDCO, VFS, HPQ, BOX and AMBA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AMBA 2) VFS 3) MSOS 4) BW 5) UBS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FGEN 2) HPQ 3) AMBA 4) EOSE 5) BOX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Disk Drives +2.3% 2) Hombuilding +2.0% 3) Medical Equipment +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMC, ZLAB, NVCR, PODD, CDLX, ALKS, NCNO, SCVL, ACMR, AEHR, DXCM, OII, LYFT, ONTO, RUN, ANF, IIPR, INSP, PDD, ELF, IONQ, SAVA, AFRM, PVH, MOD, SMCI, GCT, PRO, TOL, PRIM, STRL, MLYS, IMVT, BIDU, HEI and TSEM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VFS 2) AMBA 3) HPQ 4) CPB 5) ERJ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NAOV 2) PODD 3) FANH 4) LX 5) ZLAB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASO)/1.99
• (CPB)/.50
• (CM)/1.25
• (CIEN)/.51
• (DG)/2.47
• (GCO)/-1.23
• (HRL)/.41
• (OLLI)/.61
• (SIG)/1.45
• (TITN)/1.17 
• (UBS)/.51
  

After the Close: 

• (AVGO)/10.43
• (DELL)/1.43
• (LULU)/2.54
• (MDB)/.46
• (OXM)/3.40
• (PD)/.11
• (VMW)/1.71
  

Economic Releases  

7:30 am EST

• The Challenger Job Cuts YoY report for Aug.
  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 235K versus 230K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1706K versus 1702K prior.
• Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in June.
• Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.5% gain in June.
• The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Aug. is estimated to rise to 44.2 versus 42.8 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (DSGR) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the Stifel Transport Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -23.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 +.6
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 64.4% of Issues Advancing, 32.6% Declining
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 49.6%(+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.2 +.60%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,624.4 +.26%
• 1-Day Vix 9.90 -19.6%
  
• Vix 14.2 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -13.5%
• TRIN/Arms 1.46 +55.3%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Putin’s Going to China. It’s One of the Few Places the Accused War Criminal Can Go.
• China Banks to Cut Rates on Mortgages, Deposits in Stimulus Push.
• China’s Largest Bank Nears Record Low Valuation on Margin Woes.
• Australia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Warns on Higher Inflation Hit. 
• Dollar Bulls Look Forward to Their Favorite Month of the Year.
• Asia Shares Primed for Gains on China, Fed Outlook: Markets Wrap.
• Crypto Scores Landmark US Legal Win With Grayscale ETF Ruling.
• Tracking Hurricane Idalia’s Latest Path.
• Apple Sets Sept. 12 Date for Launch of iPhone 15, New Watches.
• Dimon Joins NY CEOs Asking Biden for Help on "Asylum Seekers". 
• Citadel Vets 69,000 Intern Applicants to Find Next Math Geniuses.
• Texas Asked to Conserve Energy After Power Plant Outages.
• Chicago TV Crew Reporting on Robberies Is Robbed at Gunpoint. 
• Six Materials That Make Cities Work. 
• Treasuries Surge as Weak Data Prompts Paring of Rate-Hike Wagers.
• Wall Street Reels From Painful Month as Winning Trades Sour.

Zero Hedge:

• "A Very Dangerous Moment" - Hungary's Orbán Warns Tucker "A 3rd World War Is Knocking On The Door".
• Joe Biden Used Pseudonyms In At Least 5,400 Emails. 
• First COVID Deaths Were Fully Jabbed, Australian State Records Reveal.
• California AG Sues SoCal School District For 'Outing' Trans, Pronoun Students To Parents.
• In Desperate Attempt To Boost Housing, China Cuts Mortgage Rates For First Time Since 2009.
• The Hidden Racial Bias In K-12 Education.
• Trump Campaign Releases Video Supercut Of Democrats Disputing Republican Election Victories.
• Whistleblower Who Disclosed Myocarditis Spike In Military After COVID Vaccine Rollout Goes Public.
• Jordan Peterson Hits Back After Canada Forces Him Into "Coaching Program" Over Controversial Statements.
• Neither Comply Nor Resist.
• Parent Slams California School For Holding 'No Whites Allowed' Kids Playdate.
• Inverse panic mania in volatility.
• Taibbi: YouTube Demonetizes Montage Of Election-Denying Dems Under "Dangerous Organizations" Policy.
• Markets JOLTed.
• From oversold to overdrive.
• WTI Extends Gains After API Reports Huge Crude Draw.
• Pentagon To Develop Drone Swarms With Eye Toward Future China War.
• Student Kicked Out Of Classroom For Wearing Gadsden Flag Patch Because It's "Racist".
• US stocks and bonds surged amid the dovish JOLTS data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Stocks and Bonds rally after dovish JOLTS - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.

Wall Street Journal:

• Germany Is Losing Its Mojo. Finding It Again Won’t Be Easy.
• ‘The Singular Cruelty of America Toward Children’. Will lockdowners finally face a reckoning?
• Idalia Strengthens to Category 2 Hurricane as It Heads Toward Florida.
• In New Step Toward Israel Deal, Saudi Arabia Offers to Resume Palestinian Authority Funding.
• International Operation Disrupts ‘Botnet’ Army Behind Damaging Cyberattacks.
• Where Peak-Season Shipping Is Headed, in Charts.
• U.S., Allies Seek Long-Term Aid for Ukraine to Show West’s Resolve.

CNBC.com:

• Why TikTok trends may take over the back-to-college shopping season.
• Under Armour founder used TV anchor’s advice when facing negative coverage, court records show.
• Nvidia’s stock closes at record after Google AI partnership.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: HP, Box, Ambarella and more.
• Eminem tells GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy to stop rapping his music.
• Regional banks face another hit as regulators force them to raise debt levels.

Newsmax:

• AJC Poll: 94% See Trump Charges as 'Political'.
• Conservatives Ink 1,000-Page Plan to Gut Deep State in Favor of Trump Vision.
•  Eric Bolling: They're Using 'Race Card' to Stop Trump.
• Kari Lake: Americans Waking Up to Biden Corruption.
• Farage: Inflation 'Disease Caused by Government'.
• Rep. Mast: Biden Used Military as 'Pawns' Leaving Afghanistan.

Fox News:

• District settles with mom after school 'transitioned' daughter without her consent.
• Congress has never been in session while former President Trump has been indicted.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Nevada Ranger’s Conduct ‘Under Review’ After Ramming Through Climate Protest Blockade, Arresting Activists at Gunpoint.
• BREAKING…NEW Police Report Verifies Law Enforcement Went Door-to-Door Confirming Fraudulent MI Voter Registration Ring…Where Are The Arrests?
• ACLU Files Lawsuit Against Indiana For Banning Inmate Sex-Changes — on Behalf of Man Who Murdered 11-Month-Old Stepdaughter.
• JUST IN: House Republicans Launch Investigation Into Jack Smith’s Office Meeting with Biden White House Officials.
• SHOCKING VIDEO: Man Lights Newspapers on Fire in NYC Subway, Throws Them at Random Strangers — Even Kids.
• Georgia Freedom Caucus to Hold Press Conference on Trump RICO Indictment Thursday Morning.
• More Layoffs Hit Fake News Washington Post.
• Joe Biden Slips, Admits ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Was Misnamed (VIDEO).
• UNC Chapel Hill Professor Shot to Death by Wuhan-Educated PhD Student Tailei Qi Identified.
• House Majority Leader Steve Scalise Diagnosed With Blood Cancer.
• Update: ACLU Workers in Fulton County, GA Had Access to Election Net Software on Their PERSONAL Computers.
• Border Patrol in Texas and Arizona Swamped With Illegal Aliens; Reporter: “Absolutely Overwhelmed and Cannot Patrol the Border”.
• Pope Francis Shames “Backwards” Conservative Catholics in the United States During Meeting with Portuguese Jesuits.
• Nashville Cowboy Goes Off on Biden, Harris in Amazing Man-on-the-Street Interview.
• Runbeck Election Services in Phoenix Defies Public Records Request in Ongoing Investigation by Arizona Legislators – Subpoenas May be Issued.
• NEW STUNNING FINDINGS—Michigan’s Dirty Voter Rolls Reveal 50,000 Voter Registrants Have ILLEGAL Addresses.

The Epoch Times:

• US Firms Say China Has Become 'Uninvestable,' Commerce Secretary Says.
• Is China’s Economic Malaise Cyclical or Structural?
• China Releases 15 Obituaries of High-Level Officials Over a Span of 34 Days.
• IN-DEPTH: China's New Patriotic Education Law Meant to Snuff Out Social Unrest, Anti-CCP Sentiment: Experts.

Twitter: 

• @DC_Draino - President Trump’s support among black voters has nearly tripled from 8% to 20%. Now you know why the media is obsessing over the “racially motivated” shooting in Jacksonville. They’re trying to scare black voters back into the Democrat mind prison.
• @TheMilkBarTV - They said the quiet part out loud = DEPOPULATION. (video)
• ProdigalThe3rd - Biden’s Green New Deal wasted trillions to cripple US energy independence, while empowering China: US Trade Rep. Katherine Tai: “China’s dominant position in the world market now in [rare earths] means that it is able to turn on the faucet and turn off the faucet …we remain entirely vulnerable to that leverage.” (video)
• @CarolynRyanTV - GEORGIA BREAKING. Gov. Brian Kemp admits to a Republican voter: "If you give anybody a voting machine, they can hack it". The exchange took place today at the 8th district GOP fish fry in Perry, GA. (video)
• @Risemelbourne - Maui The Insanity Continues. Locals are finding Mysteriously Burnt out vehicles located outside the Fire Zones...Somehow, they're Burnt to a crisp, in Liquid Metal Form and are located in between 𝙐𝙉𝘽𝙐𝙍𝙉𝙏 Houses....Something Very Fishy is going on in Hawaii. (video)
• @PasReport - Remember when they said it’s no big deal. Shut up & wear your mask. Stop complaining. 2022 was the 1st time we found micro plastics deep in the lungs & now this. 
  
• @KariLake - The birthplace of our great Republic— Philadelphia— is an apocalyptic landscape. This drug epidemic is by design. It is designed to destroy our country, take out our young generation, and weaken us. (video)
• @GameofTrades_ - Default rate on credit card loans from small lenders is now at THE highest level since 1991. (graph)
• @acemaxx - Investors predict that the coming years will be marked with #defaults and spending cuts as a larger portion of corporate, household and state income goes into financing debt, chart. (graph)
• @Xx17965787N - Klaus Schwab & Yuval Noah Harari | Outline the Great Reset Agenda. "Destroying A lot of Employment," "Adding a Non-Organic Immune System," "If You Are Left Behind We Won't Need You." (video)
• @GlobalFreedomM - “The next industrial revolution will mainly produce 2 products: bodies and minds.” “The poor will have nothing and die, while the rich will buy exemption from death along with owning things and having privileges.” -WEF advisor Yuval. (video)
• @wideawake_media - Former vice president at Pfizer, Dr. Mike Yeadon: "When the UN, and Bill Gates, and Klaus Schwab tell you that you won't be travelling, you won't have a private car, there won't be any flights, you won't own anything and you'll be happy, you probably won't live in your own house… When they tell you that, you should assume that they're serious about it." (video)
• @MartinKulldorff - "Scientific evidence cannot overcome the maskaholics’ faith. It’s tempting to compare them with the villagers in Cambodia who erected scarecrows in front of their huts to ward off the coronavirus—but that’s not fair to the villagers."

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 979,870 Reports(+2,329 from prior week) Through August 11th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.775% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.25 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 76.75 -4.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.9 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.4 +.95%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 28.0 +1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.9 -.14%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.