Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.1 -2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .61%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.1 -.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.1 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.7 -2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 127.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -8.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +34.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.4 -1.02%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 314.12 -1.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 339.0 +9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.79 -.52% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 260.5 -.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 196.65 +.90%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.78 +.32%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 22.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 168.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 -6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.8 -.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.19%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.0 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.7 -1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(490 of 500 reporting) -6.2%  unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.71 +.11:  Growth Rate +8.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.22% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.39 +.19: Growth Rate +46.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .41 +14.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .15 +80.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -77.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.91% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 51.0%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 50.1%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +22 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long