Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Alt Energy/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -5.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .95%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.4 +.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.4 +.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.85 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 23.2 -5.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -6.4%

• NYSE Arms .96 +76.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.08 -1.52%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 326.6 -1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.2 -1.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 265.6 -.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.3 +3.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.9 -3.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 -.1%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.75 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 178.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 71.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.8 -.9%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.73%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.8 euros/megawatt-hour +8.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.6 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -66.9 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.6 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(484 of 500 reporting) -7.2%  -1.0 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.0 +1.27:  Growth Rate +7.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 18.5 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 241.76 +7.59: Growth Rate +45.8% +3.1 percentage points, P/E 30.7 -2.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.06 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -81.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.91% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 46.7%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 5.5%-5.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 45.1%(+16.0 percentage points) chance of 5.5%-5.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long