Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -4.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .83%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.2 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.54 -.59%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.0 -5.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +11.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.83 +53.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.4 -4.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 328.64 -.76%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 363.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.05 -2.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 268.5 +2.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.2 -2.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.0 -3.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.7%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 179.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 +24.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 70.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.5 +.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.43% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.79 euros/megawatt-hour -14.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.0 -9.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -65.2 -13.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.7 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(478 of 500 reporting) -7.3%  unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.73 +.20:  Growth Rate +7.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.19% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.17 +.07: Growth Rate +42.7% unch., P/E 32.8 +.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 +13.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .02 +4.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -76.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 58.0%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 55.3%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +10 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long