Thursday, February 29, 2024

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -1.5% 2) Networking -1.4% 3) Oil Service -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GSBD, TCPC, PTLO, UTZ, KVYO, IONQ, IIIV, FA, XEL, HGV, TRS, EVTC, CLSK, ZIMV, SHLS, AMPH, VKTX, SDGR, SNOW, DV, NARI, CSTL, XMTR and CC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GGAL 2) ITUB 3) IRWD 4) OKTA 5) SNOW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CC 2) WW 3) AMC 4) XEL 5) GOLF
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +4.6% 2) Computer Hardware +2.9% 3) Electric Vehicles +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VERX, ESTA, AI, TPC, PSTG, ARIS, RNA, CELH, OKTA, HAYW, DUOL, ROOT, LSEA, BYND, MGNI, DFH, HRL, NTRA, ORIC, NFE, CPRX, TASK, CXM, SQM, EE, PUBM, ACEL, BAND, NTNX, BMA, SYRE, CRH, AMRC, PGNY, PZZA, EVRI, AVDX, OPRA, XHR, IRM, IGT, LMND, CDNA, DOLE, IAS, FRPT, MMYT, ARLO, KNTK, BCO, CAVA, PWP, NABL and IFF
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BKKT 2) OKTA 3) FOUR 4) SLG 5) CRM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AI 2) OKTA 3) DUOL 4) HAYW 5) MGNI

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PLUG)/-.37
  • (HIBB)/2.54
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.9% gain in Dec.
  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Readings for Feb.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Feb. is estimated to rise to 53.2 versus 52.9 in Jan.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 49.5 versus 49.1 in Jan.

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Feb.

Afternoon:

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 15.4M versus 15.0M in Jan.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, US Corporate Profits for Q4, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, US Baker Hughes Rig Count, US government funding deadline, (JACK) annual meeting, (D) investor meeting and the (SYM) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +13.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.8 -.8
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 66.1% of Issues Advancing, 31.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.2 +20.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$128.0M
  • 159 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
  • 60.4% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.8 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.3 +.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,301.3 +.05%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 78.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.6 -26.4%
  • Vix 13.6 -2.0%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +13.0%

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

Fox News: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

NBC News:

X:
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @JunkScience
  • @FinanceLancelot
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @benshapiro
  • @OvertonLive
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • The Democrats are replacing their own voters. They are going all in on illegal aliens (fake refugees). They are getting to the front of the line now for government jobs. 100% sure they will also be receiving ballots in the mail and they will be counted. (video)
  • @Cancelcloco
  • @EndWokeness
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 66.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.53%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.1 +.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.2 -.16%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Biotech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.8 +2.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -2.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.0 -1.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.7 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.2 +3.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 158.0 -7.0
  • Total Put/Call .82 -14.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 +88.9% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$200.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.6 +1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 304.3 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279 +13
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.04 -.08% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 209.5 +.18%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.2 +.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.18 -.27%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 120.2 -.27%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.04%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 156.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 826.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 64.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.2 -.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.6 euros/megawatt-hour +5.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.8 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.2 -11.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.8 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(476 of 500 reporting) +7.7% +.3 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 246.97 -.55:  Growth Rate +10.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +57.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.63 -.11: Growth Rate +47.5% -.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 unch.
  • US Yield Curve -38.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.4% +.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 80.7%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 52.8%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -145 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long