Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALK)/-1.05
• (ALLY)/.32
• (APOG)/1.01
• (BMI)/.82
• (BX)/.97
• (CMA)/1.09
• (DHI)/3.07
• (GPC)/2.16
• (KEY)/.22
• (MAN)/.91
• (MMC)/2.80
• (SNA)/4.64
  

After the Close: 

• (ISRG)/1.42
• (NFLX)/4.51
• (PPG)/1.86
• (WAL)/1.64
• (HTLD)/-.12
• (VMI)/3.31
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Business Outlook for April is estimated to fall to 2.0 versus 3.2 in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 211K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise rise to 1818K versus 1817K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for March is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
• Existing Home Sales for March is estimated to fall to 4.2M versus 4.38M in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, 5-year TIPS auction, Fed's weekly Balance Sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, IMF Meetings, (OC) general meeting, (LHX) annual meeting, (PPG) annual meeting, (CF) annual meeting, (KBH) annual meeting, (CARR) annual meeting, (HUM) annual meeting and the (IBKR) general meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 +1.3
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 51.8% of Issues Advancing, 45.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .89 -32.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$62.6M
  
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 52.6% (+2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.7 -1.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.4 -.06%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,236.9 -.14%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (Fear) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.4 -16.9%
  
• Vix 18.3 -.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +13.3%

Wednesday Watch

X:

• @JamesMelville

• USA. “Cloud seeding is booming….We’ve been doing this since the 1940s…” (video)

• @nickgerli1

• Airbnb owners next to Disney are selling. And selling fast. With the for sale inventory in the ZIP code south of Disney skyrocketing by 431% the last two years. Now to the highest level of listings on record. By far. Watch out for this Airbnb selloff to spread to more markets as the year goes on. (graph)

• @Mayhem4Markets

• Fund managers are the most bullish since January of 2022, per BofA. (graph)

• @zerohedge

• Americans Pour Into Pawnshops, Selling Gold Jewelry As Price Surges.

• @WallStreetApes 

• April 2024 UPDATE On The Lahaina, Maui Fire Aftermath. (video)
  

• @AgentTruthTell3
  

• Even #ESPN’s Stephen A Smith knows the Trump trial is b*llshit: "All you’re doing is showing that you're SCARED you CAN'T beat [Trump] on the issues...TENS of MILLIONS of PEOPLE SEE what extent THE other side is willing to go through just to KEEP HIM OUT of OFFICE." (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• What are they doing to our food?* *checks database for recent Bill Gates investments in Banana Production Enterprises. (video)

• @FinanceLancelot
  

• Godspeed Canada. (graph)
• All eyes on Japan right now. If they start liquidating U.S. Treasuries to support their falling currency, rates & the Dolllar will be heading higher and quickly. (video)

• @BorderHawkNews

• EXCLUSIVE: Massive Illegal Alien Processing Center In El Paso Desert. Border Hawk brings you this exclusive look at a massive Border Patrol facility in the desert outside El Paso, Texas. The processing center, which opened in 2023, spans 360,000 square feet and sits on 28 acres on the northeast city of the city.

• @NikolovScience

• BREAKING: New published study by an international team of researchers confirms what some medical experts have been suspecting for 18 months: The COVID mRNA shots containing N1-methyl-pseudouridine SUPPRESS the immune system and STIMULATE cancer growth!

• @kylenabecker

• New Poll from Rasmussen Reports: More Than 1 in 4 American Voters Would 'Cheat to Win' 2024 Election. Would you cheat to win? 28% Say ‘Yes’ they would engage in illegal voting practices to back their preferred candidate in the upcoming election.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.5 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 73.25 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.6%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.02%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.9 +1.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.35%.

• S&P 500 futures +.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Close on Surging Long-Term Rates, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Mid-East Regional War Fears, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -6.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74 -38.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.1 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.7 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.66 +6.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.0 -7.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +22.0
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.25 +68.9%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$86.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.6 +.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 283.8 +.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 267 -7
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.3 +4.7%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 203.4 +3.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 146.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.0 +5.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 186.6 +.84%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 141.8 +1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.07%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.25 basis points -4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 770.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +6.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.8 -6.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.1 +2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(39 of 500 reporting) +11.1% -8.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.07 +.32:  Growth Rate +12.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.1 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.62 +.27: Growth Rate +30.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.4 -.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -30.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% +50.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.7% -2.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% +3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.1%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 55.6%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +109 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +196 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -2.8% 2) Homebuilding -1.7% 3) Digital Health -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMT, HHH, AKR, BHVN, BLD, CSAN, BHP, BAC, DFH, COIN, BZH, RH, ARRY, SPT, IBP, NTRS, GOLD, QTRX, GPS, ASAI, MT, TXG, BCC and LYV
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KDP 2) HE 3) TAL 4) JETS 5) USB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LYV 2) PLUG 3) IRBT 4) FAST 5) SHCR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) ARKK 3) XLU 4) XBI 5) ITB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +.8% 2) Video Gaming +.7% 3) Semis +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ITCI, ENV, GCT, GRPN, ALXO, SE, SAVA, HCC, CGEM, GL, DAWN, UNH, AVDL and CPNG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WMB 2) AVDL 3) CMA 4) ILMN 5) CPNG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WISA 2) SMCI 3) UNH 4) COTY 5) CAVA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) IBB 3) XLE 4) XOP 5) SOXX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume