Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXP)/2.95
• (FITB)/.68
• (HBAN)/.24
• (PG)/1.42
• (RF)/.45
• (SLB)/.75
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• Bloomberg April US Economic Survey.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, IMF meetings, US Baker Hughes Rig Count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (AMN) annual meeting and the (WH) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +3.1
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 69.6% of Issues Advancing, 27.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 +21.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$184.1M
  
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 51.6% (+1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.7 -1.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.4 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,108.9 -.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 37.0 (Fear) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.7 -2.9%
  
• Vix 17.3 -4.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .98 -17.7%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Real’s Worst-in-World Currency Slide Attracts a Specific Kind of Bear.
• US Faces Pushback on More China Chip Curbs as Election Nears.
• Sands Says Renovations Will Impact Macau Results This Year.
• Asian Stocks Rangebound at Open, Tech in Focus. 
• Oil Holds Sharp Drop After US Stockpiles Expand to 10-Month High.
• What Went Wrong With US Inflation.
• US Stock Slump Is Going to Get Worse, Evercore’s Emanuel Says. 
• The AI Chatbot That Could Transform Business School Accreditation.
• Sextortion Scams Are Driving Teen Boys to Suicide.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:

• WATCH: THE ISRAEL, IRAN & PALESTINE DEBATE.
• "We Have 15,000 Samples In Wuhan ... Could Do Full Genomes Of 700 CoVs": Rand Paul Drops COVID Bombshell.
• Sanctuary Cities Set Migrant Sex Offenders Free Instead Of Handing Them Over To ICE .
• Excused Juror Reveals Selection Process For Trump’s 'Hush-Money' Trial: 'All Have Prior Opinions'.
• 2020: The Year The System Showed Its Real Face.
• "Central Bank Observers Take Note": HSBC Warns "Weak Bull" Commodity Run Has Begun.
• Los Angeles Mayor Urges 'More Fortunate' Residents To Help Fund Housing For Homeless.
• Doug Casey On The New American Dream: "You'll Own Nothing and Be Happy".
• The Purpose Of War According To George Orwell (1984).
• US stocks declined amid tech selling following ASML's weak earnings report - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• MSNBC's Joy Reid Suggests Trump Trial Is A Form Of Racial Revenge.
• Senate Saves Mayorkas From Impeachment Threat.
• Federal Judge Clears Facebook's Zuckerberg Of Personal Liability In 25 'Social Media Addiction' Cases.
• IMF Warns Biden's Fiscal Profligacy Poses "Significant Risks" To Global Economy 'In Great Election Year'.
• Tech weakness hits stocks while bond upside puts pressure on the Buck - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Boeing Whistleblower Tells Lawmakers: "They Are Putting Out Defective Airplanes"
• "Do Not Touch Me... I Am A Faculty Member": Cornell Professor Disrupts Coulter Speech.
• AI, Gold, & Nuclear War.
• Crude-Crash Saves Stocks From CTA-Slaughter; Bonds Bid But Bitcoin Battered.
  

CNBC.com:

• Biden admin, U.S. ports prep for cyberattacks as nationwide infrastructure is targeted.
• ASML earnings drag semiconductor stocks lower.
• Google restructures finance team as part of AI shift, CFO tells employees in memo.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CSX, Equifax and more.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Tech earnings are almost here. It’s all about AI and these 8 stocks. 
• Equifax stock falls as company says it’s feeling effect of weaker mortgage demand.
• CSX first-quarter profit declines but beats expectations.
• Fed’s Beige Book finds steady economic growth but little progress in reducing inflation.
• You’re paying a lot more for food these days. Here’s how to save money on groceries.

Newsmax:

• Report: Israel OK'd, Then Nixed, Strike on Iran.
• Security Council to Vote Friday on Palestinian UN Membership.
• Iran's President: 'Massive' Response to Israel's 'Tiniest Invasion'.

Fox News:

• GOP warns Dems will pay 'heavy price' after Senate ends Mayorkas impeachment trial.
• Harmful chemicals are in your drinking water — map shows 'hot spots' of highest levels.
• Major bank accused of discriminating against conservatives.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• MUST SEE: O’Keefe Media Group Uncovers who is Really Running the White House – Special Advisor Reveals That Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton Are Still Involved Behind The Scenes! (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Senate KILLS Articles of Impeachment Against Open Borders Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Breaking 227 Years of Congressional History.
• “The Food is No Good at All” – African Illegals at NYC City Council Complain About Free Food and Housing (VIDEO).
• Biden Backs Mike Johnson’s Ukraine Aid Plan, Urges Democrats to Get on Board and Says he Will Sign Into Law “Immediately” – Rep. Thomas Massie: “Johnson’s Plan is Biden’s Plan”.
• ABSOLUTELY SICK: Transgender “Vampire” Sexually Assaults Disabled Minor | Beyond the Headlines.
• NFL Superstar Aaron Rodgers Claims HIV/AIDS was a Government-Engineered Pandemic in 1980’s (VIDEO).
• 1984 IS HERE: 16-Year-Old Student SUSPENDED for Using Term “ILLEGAL ALIEN” | Beyond the Headlines.
• SEDITION? DC National Guard Whistleblowers Reveal PENTAGON Under Direction of Mark Milley REFUSED to Deploy Guard Until After 5 PM – And Liz Cheney’s Committee Never Called Them to Testify.
• Google Employees Arrested After Staging Protest Inside CEO’s Office Demanding Google to Cut Ties With Israel (VIDEO).
• After Chicago Approves $70M More for Illegals, Alderman Says “We are Not Taking Care of Our Own’.
• EXCLUSIVE: Whistleblower Who Exposed A Blatant Oversight in the VA’s Policy for Veterans With Vaccine-Related Injury Goes Public.
• Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Subsidizing the Fentanyl Crisis. 
• “Teen” Opens Fire During Massive Brawl Involving Nearly 50 Teens in Gun Control Paradise California, Resulting in One Fatality (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Lawmaker Asks How US Can Protect Shen Yun Against Malign CCP Campaign.
• Reps. Norman, Good, and Sen. Johnson Speak on ‘Surrender of US Sovereignty to WHO’.
• More Signs of China’s Growing Economic Problems.

X:

• @JackPosobiec

• EXCLUSIVE: Chuck Schumer brags to Senators about Mike Johnson giving Dems everything they wanted on Ukraine, foreign aid: report.

• @CharlieKirk11

• BREAKING: Uri Berliner has resigned from NPR after penning an essay criticizing the outlet for his far-left bias and subsequently suspended without pay. “I cannot work in a newsroom where I am disparaged by a new CEO whose divisive views confirm the very problems at NPR I cite in my Free Press essay.”

• @AmericnHubener
  

• NOT ONE CHILD RAPIST ON THE EPSTEIN CLIENT LIST HAS BEEN ARRESTED. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho 

• UAE Cloud Seeding/Geo-Engineering Control Room. You’ve seen the flood in Dubai’s airport & other weird Climate Phenomena in the Middle East. This is your human man made climate change right here. If you don’t think the West is conducting similar activities you’re very naive. (video)
• This TikToker covers in detail P Diddy alleged ‘party Shenanigans’ and stars in attendance. In this short clip she references Jay Z, Beyoncé, Simon Cowell, Ryan Seacrest to name but a few. She’s just been found mysteriously dead. RIP
  

• @JoshWalkos
  

• While we have been worrying about the WHO Pandemic Treaty and the threats to liberty it poses, the United States Government has a plan to seize control of the “Global Health Security Agenda”. $30 Billion for a worldwide plan with cross coordination between 70 governments with US agencies like the HHS and USAID taking the lead. So even if the WHO Treaty fails it doesn’t mean the power grab goes away. Read this 64 page report and tell me I’m wrong.

• @robbystarbuck

• Dubai airport looks like an apocalyptic movie. Videos of the flooding are insane. I’ve seen some blaming climate change when the cause is actually from the use of weather modification. Cloud seeding where chemicals are sprayed in clouds to create rain caused this. We recently banned this practice in my home state of Tennessee. Anytime you modify the weather you open yourself up to unintended consequences. (video)

• @JohnStossel

• Biden’s infrastructure bill will put a "kill switch" in all new cars! USA Today’s so called fact check denies that. But @laurenfix insists, “They didn’t read it, because it’s there.” Here’s what the law ACTUALLY says: (video)

• @Ostrov_A

• Wow, you want to see why the Ivy League universities in America are such a rot and a hot-bed of Jew-hatred, extremism and support for Palestinian terror? Then watch this bombshell undercover video from @Columbia University by @visegrad24. (video)

• @ForsigeNews

• BREAKING: Supporters of HAMAS, a pro-Palestinian group, have set up a "Gaza solidarity encampment" on the campus of Columbia University, which has a significant number of Jewish students.

• @WallStreetSilv

• "I am just so disgusted right now with the Canadian government". "Small business are starting to get harassed and SHUT DOWN by the Canadian government". "For selling herbs and vitamins". "You now need a consultation from the government to buy chamomile tea". "It's UNBELIEVABLE". (video)
  

• @MarioNawfal

• TELEGRAM FOUNDER: THE U.S. TRIED TO HIRE MY EMPLOYEE TO HELP THEM SPY ON USERS. Tucker: "The US government tried to secretly hire your engineer?" Doruv: "That's what he told me. They wanted him to code open-source tools into the app that would serve as backdoors." Tucker: "It would allow the US to spy on Telegram users?" Durov: "The US government, or maybe any other government, because a backdoor is a backdoor to anyone." (video)

• @billmaher

• We've passed the Rubicon with chants of "death to America" on American soil. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 71.25 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.05%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.3 +1.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74 -38.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.0 -1.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.1 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.42 -2.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.3 -.42% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 -35.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +21.7%

• NYSE Arms .76 -42.4%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$84.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 +.01%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 289.07 +2.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 265 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.8 -.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 199.8 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.9 -.19%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 183.4 -1.7%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 145.3 +2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.07%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour -5.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.6 -2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.5 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.6 -1.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(47 of 500 reporting) +9.6% -1.5 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.24 +.17:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.9 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.58 -.04: Growth Rate +30.5% unch., P/E 31.2 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .57 -24.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% +1.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.1%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 55.6%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -151 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +214 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  Index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -2.6% 2) Road & Rail -2.4% 3) Gambling -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FR, TXG, ABT, KNX, LSTR, CABA, REXR, USB, URBN, FOR, SPHR, ADSK, LRCX, TRNO, XPO, EVER, ODFL, SHYF, BLBD, APG, IMVT, CBRL, RMD, GRPN, PLD, ARCB, TMDX, TRML, TRV, MITK, JBHT, PWSC, MEG and SAGE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HES 2) NOK 3) UAA 4) DOMO 5) PLCE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VFS 2) ADSK 3) PWSC 4) TRV 5) OCGN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SPY 2) QLD 3) DIA 4) FAPR 5) IWM

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.9% 2) Utilities +1.6% 3) Gold & Silver +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DJT, UAL, ALXO, INSP, MNSO, EH, GL, LOVE, SUN, DAY, NS and AAL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UAL 2) INVO 3) WISA 4) ZUO 5) IBKR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WISA 2) SMCI 3) UNH 4) COTY 5) CAVA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VOO 2) IVV 3) SPYG 4) VO 5) BIL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume