Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -2.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .74 -38.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.0 -1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.1 +.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.42 -2.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.3 -.42% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 -35.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +21.7%
  • NYSE Arms .76 -42.4%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$84.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 +.01%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 289.07 +2.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 265 -2
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.8 -.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 199.8 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.9 -.19%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 183.4 -1.7%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 145.3 +2.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.07%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour -5.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.6 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.5 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.6 -1.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(47 of 500 reporting) +9.6% -1.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.24 +.17:  Growth Rate +13.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.9 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.58 -.04: Growth Rate +30.5% unch., P/E 31.2 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .57 -24.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% +1.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.1%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 55.6%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -151 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +214 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  Index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

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