Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Stocks Surging into Close on Stable Long-Term Rates, Weaker US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(101 of 500 reporting) +6.8% -1.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.66 +.10:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +78.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.68 +.35: Growth Rate +31.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.2 +.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 +11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -32.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +2.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.3%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 52.3%(-5.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +418 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +236 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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