Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Iran’s Attack on Israel Sparks Race to Avert a Full-Blown War.
• Israel Versus Iran — What All-Out War Could Look Like.
• US Seeks UN Response to Iran Attacks; Markets on Edge.
• What the Middle East Now Implies for the Global Economy, Markets. 
• Emerging Markets Battle Weak Currencies Amid Dollar Might.
• Investor reaction to Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel has been muted so far on hopes that the conflict will remain contained.
• Yellen Says Nothing Off Table in Response to China Overcapacity.
• Traders Tread Cautiously in Wake of Iran Attacks.
• Oil Shrugs Off Iranian Assault on Israel as Brent Holds Steady.
• Gold Rises as Iran Strike Against Israel Stokes Haven Demand.
• Why Car Insurance Keeps Getting More Expensive.
• The US Had a Chance to Lead in Chipmaking Tech, and Missed It.
• Salesforce in Talks to Acquire Informatica, WSJ Reports.
• Apple’s iPhone Shipments Plunge 10% as Android Rivals Rise.
• Charting the Global Economy: ECB Signals Rate Cuts Coming Soon.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zero Hedge:

• 'Not Looking For A Significant Escalation' - Israel Threatens Imminent Response To Iranian Attack, Then Walks It Back.
• "Read Ludwig von Mises, Motherf**kers!" - Brazilian UFC Fighter's Victory Speech Pumps Austrian Economics.
• "It's All About Israel's Response": What Happens To Oil Next According To Goldman's Commodity Traders.
• Morgan Stanley: 10-Year Yields Have "Decisively" Broken Through The Risk Level For Stocks.
• Whistleblowers To Further Dismantle Jan. 6 National Guard Narrative About Trump.
• Americans Panic-Search "World War III" And "Can I Be Drafted" As Iran Bombs Israel.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Judge Upholds Georgia's Voter Citizenship Verification Requirements.
• Trump Prepares For Monday's 'Fake Biden Trial' With 'Highly Conflicted' Manhattan Judge.
• Over 1,300 Layoffs Hit Logistics Companies Across US.
• Javier Blas Outlines Ten Takeaways For Crude Market Following Iran's Direct Attack On Israel.
• WHO Official Admits Vaccine Passports May Have Been A Scam.
• Video Evidence Shows Several Iranian Cruise Missiles Scored Direct Hits.
• A Reliable Voting Bloc For Decades, Minorities Now Look For Alternatives To Democrats.
• 'Retaliation Risk' - What Wall Street Thinks Ahead Of Market Open.
• Trump: "Everything Biden Touches Turns To $hit".
• 'Cuts This Year Are Optional Not Necessary' - Goldman Warns Long-End Rates More Likely Going Higher.
• Israel's Defense Against Iran Attack Overnight 'Likely Cost Over $1 Billion'.
• Geopolitical Risk – Hedging The Unhedgeable?
• Iran Threatens America's Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack.
• US Helps Pro-Ukraine Media Run A Fog Machine Of War: Lee Fang.
• US, UK Ban Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges: Here's What This Means.
• Watch 'Weaponized Migration' In Action: Hundreds Storm Polish Border From Belarus.
• Ugly Macro: Debtflation nation.
• TME Weekend: Some mega trends still look to be intact.
• Illegal Immigration Costs American Households Hundreds Of Billions Annually.
• Investors Bet On Further Rise In US Gasoline Prices.
• The Hidden Cost Of Progressivism, Part I.
• The Exodus Continues: Blue Regions Still Bleeding As Residents Escape Democrat Policies.
• Afghan Migrant On Terror List Released By Immigration Judge, Free To Roam USA.
• Woman Who Went Viral For Hugging Trump At Chick-Fil-A Explains Why Black Voters Support Him.
• How Biden's Inflation Reduction Act Failed To Reduced Electricity Costs In Pictures. 
• Let’s Be Honest: The Economy Is NOT Doing Well.
• This Next Bean Is Hyperinflating, And It's Not Cocoa .
• It’s Official: Reflation Is Here.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Urges Caution as Israel Weighs Response to Iran
• Biden Wanted to Avoid a Regional War. Now He’s Got One.
• Israel Repelled Iran’s Huge Attack. But Only With Help From U.S. and Arab Partners.
• Boomers Bought Up the Big Homes. Now They’re Not Budging.
• A Day in the Life of a Walmart Manager Who Makes $240,000 a Year.
• America’s Bonds Are Getting Harder to Sell.
• The U.S. Is Trying to Cripple Russia’s Vast Arctic LNG Project.
• The Home-Solar Boom Gets a ‘Gut Punch’.

CNBC:

• Surging inflation fears sent markets tumbling and Fed officials scrambling.
• Oil prices fall slightly after Israel fends off large-scale aerial attack by Iran.
• Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries show the growing threat AI drones pose to energy markets.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson says he will push for aid to Israel and Ukraine this week.
• How Spotify AI plans to know what’s going on inside your head.

MarketWatch.com:

• Fresh uncertainty around Fed rate cuts exposes the stock market’s winners and losers.
• Netflix earnings on deck. It could be a lot harder to please investors this time around.

NewsMax:

• Biden Tells Netanyahu It's a 'Win,' Won't Back Retaliation.
• Amb. David Friedman: Biden's 'US Is Paying for This' Iran Aggression.
• Gulf States Fear Full Iran-Israel War.
• Blaine Holt: All the Pieces of World War III Interlocking.

Fox News:

• Iran doubles down on 'self-defense' claim during emergency UN meeting.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Rand Paul: A Brave Marine Lt. Colonel Stepped Forward and Revealed that 15 US Agencies Knew COVID-19 Was Created in Lab in 2018 – But They Kept It Secret from American Public (VIDEO).
• Italian Soccer Match Abandoned After 24-Year-Old Player Suddenly Collapses With Chest Pains (VIDEO).
• Unhinged Man Randomly Sucker Punches 9-Year-Old Girl in the Face in NYC Grand Central Terminal (VIDEO).
• John Kirby Dodges Question from Stephanopoulos: “The President Also Called on Iran Not to Retaliate But They Did Anyway, What Does That Tell You?”
• Leo Hohmann: Godfather of AI Says ‘Battle robots’ Will Soon Dominate War-Making Abilities of Major Nations, Posing ‘Existential Threat’.
• Biological Male Athlete Smokes Female Competitors in 200-Meter Race — Same Time Would Have Placed Him 61st in Boys Category (VIDEO).
• Texas A&M University-Commerce Football Player Dies at 23.
• 2020 Biden on Trump: “As the Walls Close in on This Man, I’m Worried That He’s Going to Get Us to War in Iran” (VIDEO).
• With Strategic Petroleum Reserve at Historic Lows, Biden Cancels Replenishment Order.
• New York Times Admits Voters Looking Back ‘More Positively’ on Trump’s Presidency as Biden Fails at Everything.
• Biden’s America-CBP Statistics: Over 400,000 Illegals Flown Directly into US Under Biden Regime’s CHNV Parole Program.
• NEVER FORGET: Joe Biden Gifted Iran with Over $80 Billion Since Entering the White House.
• Here’s the Poll That Has Democrats Panicked About the 2024 Election.
• Euthanasia Campaign Now Admits When People Die it Saves Money!

X:

• @WideAwakeMedia

• WHO Director-General calls for a "transformation" of the food system, away from meat-eating and traditional agriculture, in the name of fighting "climate change": "Our food systems are harming the health of people and planet. Food systems contribute to over 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, and account for almost one third of the global burden of disease." (video)

• @JoshWalkos
  

• This is where we are at right now..The FBI’s Head of Diversity canceled an invited guests speech because of her political opinions. Watch Yeonmi Park explain. In case you’re not familiar, she is a North Korean defector who has been widely celebrated for her courage. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: US mortgage demand in March fell to its lowest since 1995, according to Reventure. Mortgage demand is now 43% below its recent peak and ~16% below the post-2008 lows. Meanwhile, the average payment on a new mortgage is now nearly $2,800/month. This means that the average American household would spend ~45% of their PRE-TAX income on a new mortgage payment. On a post-tax basis, it's over 60% and this doesn't even include taxes, insurance, and maintenance. (graph)
• JUST IN: US credit card delinquency rates are now at their highest on record, according to the Philadelphia Fed. In Q4 2023, more credit card balances were 30+ and 60+ days past due compared to any other period in history. The percentage of credit card balances at least 30 days past due is now ~3.5%. Meanwhile, total credit card debt has skyrocketed in recent months and is now at a record $1.3 trillion. The average credit card interest rate is also at record 28%, according to Forbes. (graph)
  

• @BorderHawkNews
  

• California Democrats Kill Bill to Strip Felony Fentanyl Dealers of Sanctuary State Protections. (video)

• @visegrad24

• Here is the Israeli Iron Dome defending one of Islam’s holiest places, the Al-Aqsa Mosque, from wait for it, missiles launched by the Muslim fundamentalists ruling Iran. (video)

• @JamesOKeefeIII

• BREAKING, INSIDE THE FEDERAL RESERVE: Hidden Camera captures Principal Economist @federalreserve talking about Jerome Powell’s legacy as “somebody who held the line against like, Trump.” The influential agency responsible for maintaining a stable monetary system appears to not just be establishing interest rates, but to be setting policies for desired social outcomes. (video)
  

• @AlertChannel

• #Breaking News. Israeli Cabinet Decides Imminent Attack on Iran. In a significant development, the Israeli cabinet has reportedly decided to launch an attack on Iran within the next few hours. This decision comes following earlier indications and preparations observed this afternoon.

• @WallStreetSilv

• Say goodbye to your car ... The elites are trying to get rid of private car ownership. As parroted by the leader the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab: "By 2030 Los Angeles will be private car driven free". (video)
• Why is it NOT a FELONY to buy a child for s*x in California? It's literally a misdemeanour ... What does that say about the lawmakers in California? This is absolutely INSANE. (video)
• Australia's Banks Are Already Refusing Cash Withdrawals For Their Customers: "I thought it was absolutely crazy" "How can you go to a bank and not get your own money out?" "I thought she misheard what I wanted" "What's in the bank if there's no cash?" "They just said" "I'm so sorry we can't help you". (video)

• @ProfStonge

• Apparently one in three climate-tracking weather stations don't actually exist. Yet they keep reporting temperature data "like magic." The data is BS. And they're hoping to ride it to take over the world.

• @MarioNawfal

• U.S CONGRESS' SECRET PLAN TO BLOCK THE SUN. On April 2nd, the government covertly sprayed "sun-blocking salt aerosols" in the sky over California to see if they could "combat climate change" by blocking out some rays. This experiment, kept under wraps to avoid public outcry, could pave the way for widespread artificial cloud cover. Note: the White House recently endorsed solar geoengineering as a potential "climate solution." What's the harm in a few more chemicals sprayed into the air we breathe? (pic)

• @SharylAttkisson

• Eye-opening revelations from an MD who says “lies” taught in med school are impacting our health. (video)

• @LibsofTiktok

• BREAKING: Denver Mayor (D) announces he’s diverting $90 million of the city’s budget to service “newcomers” aka illegals, and blames it on Republicans. Democrats made Denver a sanctuary city in 2017. Democrats control Colorado and passed progressive immigration policies in 2021. (video)

• @ChanelRion

• As of 4/11/24, the DOJ is the personal Defense Firm of the Biden Family. One Federal Judge did NOT get the memo — and she’s rightly outraged at the DOJ. She’s threatening to expose them. (video)
  

• @shellenberger

• BRAZIL SHOULD TERRIFY YOU. Just a day and a half ago, it seemed like things were calming in Brazil. The Folha de São Paulo, the New York Times of Brazil, editorialized against censorship. The head of the Brazilian Bar Association gave a strong statement in support of freedom of expression. And the President of Brazil’s Supreme Court said the conflict between Brazil and X, formerly known as Twitter, was over. “People talk a big game but don’t act on their words,” he said. (video)
  

• @GenFlynn

• The dirty little secret is that U.S. taxpayers are funding all sides of the war in the Middle East. We’re funding Iran (a state sponsor of terror), all of its surrogates (Hamas, Hezbollah & the Houthi rebels in Yemen), we’re funding Israel (who is suppose to be our closest ally) and we’re still funding Iraq (a satellite of Iran)…so we’re funding the entire war (both sides). That is because of zero and I mean zero leadership in WDC. And we’re still funding the war in Ukraine!

• @Scarlett4Kids

• SHOCK POLL: (Well, not shocking to members of @Moms4Liberty) American Parents—regardless of the age of their child, their politics, or their ethnicity—are not down w/ the gender obsessed woke cult that has captured K-12 education. Most “Strongly” disagree with this polling question. Q: To what degree do you agree with the following statement: I want my child's school to discuss LGBTQ issues in class. (poll)

• @amuse
  

• DEI: In another case of ‘Didn’t Earn It’ Biden-appointed Federal Reserve Board member Lisa DeNell Cook’s entire academic career has been found to be fraudulent. From faking research data, to outright plagiarism, to lying on her resume - Cook is in charge of our monetary policy.

• @RightAngleNews

• JUST IN - Former Obama White House stenographer Mike McCormick, who worked closely with the then-Vice President Joe Biden and recorded many of his interactions, is now calling for Joe Biden to be “impeached and imprisoned” for his crimes in Ukraine. McCormick has also filed a tip to the FBI, asserting his confidence in the truthfulness of his claims, stating that he knows the penalty for a false report means jail time. (video)

• @Fxhedgers

• CHINESE ELECTRIC CARS ARE CLOGGING EUROPEAN PORTS (MSN). European ports accuse Chinese carmakers of using them as 'car parks' for their excess inventories. A logistical nightmare is unfolding at European ports and shipping terminals.
• TEEN PSYCHOSIS RISK MAY BE LINKED TO COMPUTER AND VIDEO GAME USE (Newsweek) .
  

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.25 +3.25 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 73.25 +3.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 111.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 -.01%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.5 +1.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.9 -1.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%.
• S&P 500 futures +.23%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the week.