Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Diminishing Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.06 +23.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.7 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.1 -.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.4 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.2 +2.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +31.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 -11.8%

• NYSE Arms .88 +1.2%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$5.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.8 -.12%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 286.9 -.65%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 263 -2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.5 -1.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 197.4 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.7 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.7 +.5%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 145.4 +.03%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.09%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 773.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.11%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 33.4 +2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.9 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(61 of 500 reporting) +8.4% -1.2 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.21 -.03:  Growth Rate +13.0% unch., P/E 20.0 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.66 +.08: Growth Rate +30.5% unch., P/E 31.1 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .66 +9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.0% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 84.8%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 58.5%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -310 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +99 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long