Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -8.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.7 +3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.6 -1.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(138 of 500 reporting) +4.8% -2.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.43 -.23:  Growth Rate +13.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -6.4% -85.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.27 +.49: Growth Rate +31.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.3 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .98 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .78 +10.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -28.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.7% -20.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% -.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.1%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 55.6%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +200 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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