Thursday, April 25, 2024

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Massive Capital Gains Tax Hike Proposal, Declining Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 +.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.41% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.8 euros/megawatt-hour +2.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 -6.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.6 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.0 +8.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(189 of 500 reporting) +1.5% -3.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.82 +.39:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.9 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +62.5% +68.9 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.61 -.66: Growth Rate +31.4% -.2 percentage point, P/E 30.1 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .79 +1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve -29.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.7% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 90.5%(+7.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 68.1%(+12.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +87 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +207 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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