Monday, April 22, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

CNBC.com:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 
X:
  • @kylenabecker
  • @FxHedgers
  • The UK is facing a manufactured fake food shortage. The government has been at war with it's farmers for many years, forcing them to close with insane new regulations. It is not "climate change" related. It is 100% government inflicted if there is any food shortage.
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @BillAckman
  • @stillgray
  • @The_Real_Fly
  • @JunkScience
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @ReduxxMag 
  •  @MrAndyNgo
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.25 -3.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 70.0 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.0 +1.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 -1.0%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.51%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Higher on Diminished Mid-East Regional War Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -10.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .54 -53.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.8 +.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.5 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 -2.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.8 -12.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 +38.0
  • Total Put/Call .93 -13.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 +20.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$435.6M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.2 -4.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 274.0 -2.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 275 +12
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.4 -2.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 193.2 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.9 -1.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.7 -3.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 139.5 -1.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 -.06%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.25 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 -.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.3 euros/megawatt-hour -4.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.4 -5.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.6 -3.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.6 +1.7 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(72 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.56 +.35:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.8 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +78.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.68 +2.02: Growth Rate +31.4% +.9 percentage point, P/E 29.5 -1.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 -1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve -35.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.1% -1.9 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.46% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.0%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 59.0%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +327 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +281 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added some back
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -3.6% 2) Electric Vehicles -.2% 3) Healthcare Providers +.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • VZ and INFA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MTTR 2) GSK 3) NUE 4) NRG 5) HON
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VAXX 2) AU 3) CNHI 4) VFS 5) CAH
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLK 3) XLU 4) XLE 5) KWEB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks +2.3% 2) Video Gaming +2.3% 3) Semis +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RIOT, WOLF, CEPU, SE, CLSK, GGAL, KB, PDD, BMA, YPF, TROX, TGS, VSTO, FMS, KSS, PFS, LBAI, F, BLFS, KEX, PAM, UAL, MARA, NVDA, ZION, BIRK, SBS, MRUS, TFC, EQT, PNFP, VCTR, PHG, LVS and LULU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BSX 2) FLR 3) MTTR 4) FUBO 5) DUK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SPCB 2) MTTR 3) SE 4) LVO 5) GRYP
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) IBB 4) IAK 5) IXC
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (DHR)/1.72
  • (FI)/1.79
  • (FCX)/.27
  • (GE)/.65
  • (GM)/2.13
  • (HAL)/.74
  • (HRI)/2.15
  • (JBLU)/-.52
  • (KMB)/1.63
  • (LMT)/5.82
  • (NEE)/.75
  • (PEP)/1.52
  • (PII)/.05
  • (PHM)/2.36
  • (DGX)/1.86
  • (RTX)/1.23
  • (R)/1.71
  • (SHW)/2.22
  • (SPOT)/.63
  • (UPS)/1.30
After the Close: 
  • (BKR)/.39
  • (CB)/5.31
  • (EQR)/.91
  • (IEX)/1.76
  • (MANH)/.87
  • (MAT)/-.13
  • (STX)/.29
  • (STLD)/3.51
  • (TSLA)/.49
  • (TXN)/1.97
  • (V)/2.44
  • (NVR)/103.97
  • (WFRD)/1.44
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.9 in March. 
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI for April is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 52.1 in March.
  • The S&P US Composite PMI for April is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.1 in March.

10:00 pm EST

  • New Home Sales for March is estimated to rise to 669K versus 662K the prior week.
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is estimated to rise to -8 versus -11 in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Index for April, 2Y Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, (BWA) annual meeting, (CMA) general meeting, (BLMN) annual meeting and the Maxim Group Mining/Processing Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -8.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 +.3
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 35.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.36 +61.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$240.5M
  • 14 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
  • 52.6% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.1 -.14%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.3 -.13%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,526.0 -.06%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (Fear) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.5 -32.1%
  • Vix 17.9 -4.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -6.5%