Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.25 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 70.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.30%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 +.03%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.7 +3.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 -.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.60%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Close on Stable Long-Term Rates, Weaker US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(101 of 500 reporting) +6.8% -1.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.66 +.10:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +78.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.68 +.35: Growth Rate +31.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.2 +.7
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 +11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -32.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.9% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +2.2 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% +3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 83.3%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 52.3%(-5.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +418 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +236 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -2.9% 2) Airlines -.9% 3) Electric Vehicles -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PKG, CALX, WBS, WRB, IVZ, VERX, CART, NUE, SSD, CLF, XRX, LKQ and MSCI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LSXMK 2) HTZ 3) GSM 4) CYTK 5) CORT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JBLU 2) LKQ 3) XRX 4) NUE 5) SPWR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) GDX 2) XOP 3) ARKK 4) KWEB 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.4% 2) Alt Energy +3.2% 3) Disk Drives +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HIBB, SPOT, GL, FUTU, R, SNBR, DAWN, LFMD, AY, NEB, MEDP, DHR, CGEM, GATO, GE, RIOT, KMB, AVAV, GM, SAP, DGX, FL, PHM, BHVN, TME, HAS, SPHR, VCTR, ALCC, NSSC and OPCH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SGMO 2) BSX 3) PR 4) APH 5) HTZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HIBB 2) KMB 3) SPOT 4) GE 5) DHR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) MLPX 3) XLF 4) VGT 5) XLU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (T)/.54
• (BIIB)/3.45
• (BA)/-1.63
• (BSX)/.51
• (BG)/2.53
• (CME)/2.45
• (GD)/2.91
• (HAS)/.27
• (HLT)/1.41
• (HUM)/6.12
• (NSC)/2.91
• (ODFL)/1.34
• (OTIS)/.87
• (OC)/3.07
• (TDY)/4.63
• (TMO)/4.71
  

After the Close: 

• (ALGN)/1.97
• (CACI)/5.63
• (CMG)/11.69
• (ETD)/.64
• (F)/.43
• (IBM)/1.60
• (KNX)/.30
• (LRCX)/7.30
• (MTH)/3.55
• (META)/4.32
• (MOH)/5.68
• (ORLY)/9.27
• (RJF)/2.30
• (NOW)/3.14
• (URI)/8.37
• (WHR)/1.67
• (WH)/.74
• (FWRD)/.02
• (ROK)/2.15
• (SAVE)/-1.44
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for March is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +1.3% gain in Feb.
• Durables Ex Transports for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow update, 2/5Y T-Note auctions, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (GS) annual meeting, (CI) annual meeting, (TDY) annual meeting, (TXT) annual meeting, (GPN) annual meeting, (SAH) annual meeting, (ETN) annual meeting, (STRA) annual meeting, (AN) annual meeting, (BAC) general meeting, (NEM) annual meeting, (MYRG) annual meeting and the (APTV) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 +1.0
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 83.3% of Issues Advancing, 14.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.42 +47.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$201.5M
  
• 48 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 57.0% (+6.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 +10.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.2 +.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.6 -.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,657.4 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (Fear) +7.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.1 -10.7%
  
• Vix 16.3 -4.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -2.1%