BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Medical longs, Defense longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is very light. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is neutral. The VIX is falling -.25% and is above average at 19.88. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 66.0 and the total put/call is above average at .91. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 1.64 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.49. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -1.36% to 65.13 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +.40% to 82.48 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling -4 basis points to 16 basis points. The TED spread is now down 449 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling -15.7% to 29.31 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 8 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +1 basis point to 2.40%, which is down -25 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .09%, which is up +4 basis points today. Software, Medical Equipment and Defense stocks are outperforming today.Gauges of investor angst are very high today given a flat market, which is a positive.The ISE Sentiment Index is showing a spike in retail option trader bearishness.The 2-Yr swap spread has moved back down to the lower end of its 8-month trading range, which is also a positive.The number of coal vessels waiting to load at Australia's Newcastle port has reached a two-year high of 60, amid growing winter demand from northeast Asia and falling stocks. It is also a big positive to see long-term rates falling despite additional supply.Despite Iran worries and a better consumer confidence reading, oil is flat on the day.Gold continues to trade poorly.On the negative side, cyclicals are seeing some profit-taking again today and (IYR) is a bit heavy.Nikkei futures indicate an +100 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +14 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less economic fear, technical buying, lower long-term rates and seasonal strength.
- The cost to protect US corporate bonds from default declined to the lowest in almost two years, trading in a benchmark credit derivatives index shows.Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index fell .5 basis point to 81.5 basis points, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. The index reached its lowest since Jan. 2, 2008, when it ended at 81.04 basis points, according to CMA DataVision.
- Alexis de Tocqueville never met Harry Reid. Had he encountered the Senate Democratic leader—or President Barack Obama or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi—de Tocqueville might have learned about a new twist on his concept of the "tyranny of the majority." The Frenchman toured America in the 1830s and published his conclusions in the classic "Democracy in America." He noted the powerful impact of public opinion. "That is what forms the majority," he wrote. Congress merely "represents the majority and obeys it blindly" and so does the president. They are free to brush aside minority opinion, creating a threat de Tocqueville described as the "tyranny of the majority." Democrats in Washington do have large majorities in Congress. But instead of reflecting popular opinion, they are pursuing wide-ranging initiatives in defiance of the views of the majority of Americans. This stands de Tocqueville's concept on its head. The most striking example is health-care reform. It is intensely unpopular but was approved by the House in November and the Senate on Christmas Eve. Asked in a Rasmussen poll in mid-December if they'd prefer no bill to ObamaCare, 57% said they would. Only 34% said they'd rather ObamaCare be enacted.
- Al-Qaeda uses its own scanning and x-ray machines to test the concealment of bombs, citing a former Dutch military intelligence official. Al-Qaeda has performed test-runs to mislead scanning machines in European airports, the official said.
Le Figaro:
- Apple Inc.’s(AAPL) 2009 French sales of iPhones will total between 1.8 million and 2 million units.That’s enough to give Apple an 8.5% share of the French mobile-phone market.
A statement attributed to the group "al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula" claimed it was retaliating for what it says was the U.S.'s role in a recent Yemeni military offensive on al Qaeda, according to a translation by the Middle East Media Research Institute.
Fox, which doesn't receive any retransmission fees from Time Warner Cable, is asking for $1 per subscriber per month--a figure that more than doubles the amount the cable company pays to other broadcast networks, like CBS Corp. (CBS).
- Apparently the fellows in al Qaeda took as a personal insult Secretary of Homeland Anxiety Janet Napolitano's comment Sunday that their role in the foiled Detroit airliner bombing wasn't clear but would be investigated. Yesterday, al Qaeda's ascendant franchise in the Arabian peninsula saved Secretary Napolitano the trouble of plowing through all the layers of the national-security bureaucracy for an answer. The terrorist organization put out a pointed statement not only claiming responsibility but also mocking the U.S.'s ability to stop them. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, they said, "dealt a huge blow to the myth of American and global intelligence services and showed how fragile its structure is." What this means is that we have to think more broadly about jihad and the potential recruitment of terrorists anywhere in the world, including inside the United States. We and our European allies have to revisit the problem of fiery imams using mosques as recruitment depots for airline suicide bombers. The close call in the airspace over Detroit gives "probable cause" new meaning. Al Qaeda has sent a message to the Obama Administration: You are in a war. Someone in our government needs to say clearly that they now understand the message.
- S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for October is estimated to rise to 147.0 versus 146.51 in September.
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus a reading of 49.5 in November.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Treasury's 5-Year Note auction, API energy inventory data, ABC Consumer Confidence reading and weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial stocks in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.