Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,857.4 -2.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 43,296.5 -.5%

• NASDAQ 18,556.5 -5.3%

• Russell 2000 2,135.8 -2.5%

• NYSE FANG+ 12,641.4 -5.5%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 179.4 -7.7%

• Wilshire 5000 58,144.5 -2.7%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,902.2 -4.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,885.3 -.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 909.7 +.22%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 238.8 -1.0%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,364.2 -7.2%

• Transports 15,866.3 -1.3%

• Utilities 994.9 -2.90%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 138.2 +3.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.93 -4.2%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 222.1 -.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 117.1 -.3%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 538,988 -.6%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +4.4%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -453 -536

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -24.2 +10.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 197,594 -10.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,752,594 -2.0%

• Total Put/Call .85 -9.0%

• OEX Put/Call .89 -3.7%

• ISE Sentiment 143.0 -26.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.24 +18.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 75.4 -1.4%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 -39.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.62 +23.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 22.3 +18.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.04 +46.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 21.5 +41.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.34 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.07 +3.5%

• Smart Money Flow Index 21,161.6 -.7%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  87.9 -3.6

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.974 Trillion +.9%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.622 Million

• AAII % Bulls 19.4 -33.6%

• AAII % Bears 60.6 +49.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 19.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -24.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 306.03 -3.3%

• Crude Oil 69.93/bbl. -.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 197.7 -2.9%

• Natural Gas 3.86 -9.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%
  

• Heating Oil 236.5 -2.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 98.0 (1,000/metric ton) -7.7%
  

• Gold 2,838.2 -3.1%
• Silver 30.9 -4.6%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 458.2 -1.6%

• Copper 451.4 -.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 357.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.60 USD/Metric Tonne -5.6%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,475.0 USD/metric tonne unch. 

• CME Lumber  639.5 +3.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,461.6 -4.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 292.5 USD/Short Ton -2.0%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast -1.48% -382.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.5% +9.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.37 -5.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 340.5 +67.9%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $55.0 Billion, $359.48 Savings Per Taxpayer n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.4% +2.6 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.23 +.93:  Growth Rate +12.3% -3.9 percentage points, P/E 21.2 -1.0
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.67% +181.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +31.5% +4.9 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 409.36 +2.90: Growth Rate +32.4% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -3.0
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.5 -8.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.9 +1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.0 +3.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 6.5%(+.5 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 93.5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  

• US Dollar Index 107.4 +.7%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,747.9 -.38%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 83,287.0 -12.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.4 +.2%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 22.75 +.5 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -19.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.719 Trillion -.3%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.850 Billion -7.7%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.106 Billion -43.6%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.2 +11.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 217.4 +4.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 +4.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.1 -2.7%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.8 +5.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 178.2 +5.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 82.0 -6.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.9 -1.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 -.3%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 117.3 +.24%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.1% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% -4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.11% unch.

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -4.5 basis points -3.75 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 -.5 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.5 +3.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 186.0 +4.9% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 178.0 +16.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.5 +2.4%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 134.6 -.06%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 157.1 +1.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 131.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 589.0 -4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,306.9B +2.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 224,000 +3.9%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.5 +.3%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.0% -15.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 212,300 -1.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.9% +10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% +10.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $207.7M +175.9%

• Nationwide Gas $3.11/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,159.0 +18.1%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,639.3/40 ft Box -5.2%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,250.7 -5.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 -7.1%
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 62.1 +10.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 265,261 -2.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,579,755 +19.3%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.4%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -4.4%

Leading Sectors

• Insurance +4.3%

• Restaurants +1.9%
• REITs +1.6%
  

• Defense +1.6%
  

• Pharma +1.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Alt Energy -7.7%
  

• Education -8.8%
  

• Semis -8.9%

• Computer Hardware -10.4%
  

• Disk Drives -11.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (31)

• TPC, PRGO, SOUN, ARLO, ALHC, IAS, ESTC, PAR, AES, OTLY, ANIP, FOXF, ROOT, CODI, SIG, PTCT, DRVN, EFC, PBA, RKT, MNST, RBLX, WBD, KALV, ACLX, NXST, MTZ, AKAM, TMDX, HLN and ACIW

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (54)

• MOS, AAON, CUBE, FSLR, FTDR, SNRE, WB, NCLH, SGRY, TFX, TIGO, ADSK, THC, PCVX, DSP, SEMR, XENE, BAH, MGNI, DELL, CSIQ, TME, RDNT, TLK, AGO, TDW, SEM, JAMF, VERX, ICUI, HCA, PCRX, AMR, CYD, HPQ, FA, VRRM, AMPH, ACA, UHS, AAOI, ACEL, CSTL, AVPT, NTAP, DUOL, ACHC, ASTH, AMRC, DV and PRAX

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Construction Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.99 -.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.5 -5.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.9 +2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.0 +2.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.4% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.23 +.45:  Growth Rate +12.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.3 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.67% +74.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +31.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 409.36 +1.58: Growth Rate +32.4% +.5 percentage point, P/E 31.0 -.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 -11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.62 -2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 23.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.48% -182.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.5% +4.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% -4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.83% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 69.7% (-2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 57.9%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -14 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -170 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/utility/financial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (PLUG)/-.23
  

After the Close: 

• (OKTA)/.74
• (GTLB)/.23
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.5% gain in Dec.
• ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to fall to 50.5 versus 50.9 in Jan.
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 15.9M versus 15.6M in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Musalem speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, TD Cowen Healthcare Conference, Jefferies Renewables/Clean Energy Conference and the UBS Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST