Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.31%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.4 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.16%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Falling Fed Rate-Cut Odds, More Hawkish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.21% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(469 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.09 +.16:  Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.61 +.20: Growth Rate +24.7% unch., P/E 31.8 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.12 -18.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.4
• US Yield Curve 55.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.1% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 46.3% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -176 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer utility/financial sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.4% 2) AI/Innovation -2.1% 3) Computer Hardware -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DASH, XK, OPCH, RDDT, KEYS, EL, TGT, DY, INTC, ALC, LZB, CLDX, KYIV and JHX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LAZR 2) SILJ 3) TGT 4) EH 5) BLSH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LZB 2) EL 3) NVAX 4) TGT 5) MU

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) KRE 3) XLF 4) XLB 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.0% 2) Energy +1.1% 3) Medical Equipment +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GES, NEGG, SRRK, DK, VKTX, NEON, MUX, GDS, SPRY, COCO, HNRG, SBET,  ADI, HTHT, RIGL, CVI, BMNR, PARR, NU, LEU, DRD, AS, MDT, B, WBTN, CRMD, BZ, FUTU, UPST, CMPO, SD, W, MNSO, LNTH, PPC, DAY, AMN and XYF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BILL 2) FIP 3) BLSH 4) TJX 5) ADT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) THAR 2) NESR 3) RIME 4) TJX 5) HTZ

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) XLP 3) IGM 4) IHF 5) XHB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CSIQ)/1.34
• (HOV)/3.51
• (OSIS)/3.19
• (SCSC)/.92
• (WMT)/.73 

After the Close: 

• (INTU)/2.66
• (ROST)/1.53
• (WDAY)/2.11
• (ZM)/1.38 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 224K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1960K versus 1953K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Aug. is estimated to fall to 6.7 versus 15.9 in July. 

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Aug. is estimated to fall to 49.7 versus 49.8 in July.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for August is estimated to fall to 54.2 versus 55.7 in July.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for August is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 55.1 in July. 

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for July is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.3% decline in June.
• Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 3.92M versus 3.93M in June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Jackson Hole Fed Conference, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (ELF) annual meeting and the (MOD) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 -3.0
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 43.6% of Issues Advancing, 54.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .80 -24.5% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$30.4M
  
• 60 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 54.0% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.4 +.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4 -.03%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.9 -.7%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.3 -.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (GREED) -5.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 +.1%
  
• Vix 16.2 +4.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 +1.1%