Monday, December 08, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • CNBC Daily Open: Investors are loving the Paramount-Warner Bros-Netflix drama. 
  • Asia-Pacific markets set to slip, tracking Wall Street losses ahead of Fed rate decision. 
  • Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
  • Stock futures are slightly higher as Trump approves Nvidia chips sales to China: Live updates
  • ICEBlock developer sues U.S. government after DOJ demanded Apple remove app from store.
  • Three more Wall Street firms came out with bullish 2026 outlooks. Here's why they see another upbeat year ahead.
  • Here's what to expect in Paramount's quest to elbow out Netflix and buy Warner Bros. Discovery.
  • Trump greenlights Nvidia H200 AI chip sales to China, says Xi responded positively.  
  • @TheTranscript
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @GenFlynn
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @MaryBowdenMD
  • @Hedgeye
  • @JoshHall2024
  • @LeadingReport
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @realtinapeters
  • @RenzTom
  • @amuse 
  • UKRAINE: After years defending Zelensky and opposing audits, the NYT now admits billions in aid were stolen by his inner circle. Democrats blocked oversight. The corruption is finally undeniable. The only question is where is all of the money?
  • @KariLake
  • Arrests please!! The most important clip you will ever watch. @MikeBenzCyber lays out what appears to be the Swamp's plot to overthrow the government and destroy Trump and his supporters. Every person at this June 2020 meeting must be investigated. Perhaps more than a few should be facing treason, insurrection, or sedition charges. (video)
  • @RealHickory
  • In 30 days, the statute of limitations expires on one of the greatest crimes ever committed against the American people, Nancy Pelosi's J6 Insurrection hoax! After that, everyone involved will have gotten away with it. If indeed that happens, that will be a worse crime!
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.77 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.16 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 95.3 -.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.17% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.39% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Medical/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.16 -.06%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 132.0 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.3 +2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +12.9% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.03 +.33:  Growth Rate +13.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 510.48 +.79: Growth Rate +24.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 +.3
  • US Yield Curve 59.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.5% -1.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% -9.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 68.5% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 49.5%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -91 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer financial/tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment -1.7% 2) Homebuilding -1.3% 3) Gold & Silver -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • WLY, FOXF, MCHB, PHR, INCY, NFLX, RGR, ASIX, CEVA, MAT, PRCT, GWRE, MGPI, ITT, DG, UL, LAZ, MRVL, OMDA, APD, RIGL, LEGN and SUPX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CFLT 2) SNY 3) FLG 4) TFC 5) AAOI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MRVL 2) JYD 3) FUN 4) TSLA 5) VIRC
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) KRE 2) XLP 3) IYW 4) IYF 5) XLK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Networking +1.6% 2) Gambling +1.5% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WVE, GPCR, FULC, KYMR, CFLT, OCUL, DBVT, NRIX, LBRX, WRBY, CGEM, CVNA, ARWR, CAPR, HE, DYN, SGML, ACLX, PRAX, FLEX, AXTI, IMAX, HLIT, PSKY, CNK, SATS, CWST, PRIM, U, CRMD, MNMD, HNRG, TYRA, GTLB, TERN, CRH, PDFS, OMCL, AMBA, INSP, HTFL, CBLL, TTAN, WPP, CIEN, APPN, ALSN and WBD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WRBY 2) WVE 3) CFLT 4) VSAT 5) OCUL 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WVE 2) FULC 3) CVNA 4) KYMR 5) CFLT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) COPX 3) IYG 4) XLU 5) XRT
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ASO)/1.06
  • (AZO)/32.71
  • (CPB)/.74
  • (CCNM)/.73
  • (GIII)/1.61
  • (KFY)/1.31
  • (OLLI)/.74
After the Close: 
  • (AVAV)/.78
  • (CASY)/5.19
  • (CBRL)/-.79
  • (PLAY)/-1.05
  • (GME)/.20 
Economic Release 
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 98.3 versus 98.2 in Oct.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for Sept. is estimated to fall -.3%.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Oct. is estimated at 7115K. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 10Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook, WASDE report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, Barclays Tech Conference, Wells Fargo Energy/Power Conference, Raymond James TMT/Consumer Conference, (LGND) investor day, (XOM) business update, (ELAN) investor meeting, (ANDE) investor day, (HD) investor meeting, (CVS) investor day, (PANW) annual meeting and the (GEV) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -13.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.6 +3.9
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 61.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .74 -41.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$150.2M
  • 78 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
  • 61.2% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 -3.1
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 33.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 30.0% -3.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.56 +.4%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 418.5 +2.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.4 -.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.0 +.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 34.0 (FEAR) -6.0 points
  • 1-Day Vix 9.2 -7.5%
  • Vix 16.8 +8.8%
  • Total Put/Call .83 +10.7%