Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminishing AI Infrastructure Build-Out Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.2 +.4%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.29 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.0 -.4%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 123.9 -.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.4 +.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.2 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.2 -6.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.1 +1.5 points 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.58 +.22:  Growth Rate +15.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.22 +.57: Growth Rate +18.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 unch.
• US Yield Curve 71.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.05 +.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.1% +.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch. 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 50.3% (-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.6%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +796 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +143 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/financial/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long