Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.89 unch.
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.17 +4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.8 -.6%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 124.5 -.4%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.0 -1.0
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.7 -2.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.0 -1.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.9 +1.3 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(83 of 500 reporting) +21.8% +4.2 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.93 +.17: Growth Rate +16.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.09% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 492.44 +.24: Growth Rate +19.8% unch., P/E 31.9 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
- US Yield Curve 65.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.1 -1.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.0% -.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.09 +8.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 82.2% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 68.6%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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