Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The White House said President Trump is mulling options in Iran, including airstrikes, but that diplomacy is his first choice. Trump has also spoken to Elon Musk about restoring internet communications in Iran, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday. 
• Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will seek closer ties with South Korea as Tokyo moves to contain a deepening diplomatic and trade dispute with China and counter Beijing’s efforts to drive a wedge between key US allies. 
• Oil traders are lining up protection against a spike in prices at a rate never seen before on concern that protests in Iran will escalate and result in a disruption to supply. 
• China Turns to Big Data and Public Shaming in Hunt for Tax Evaders.
• Wall Street homebuyers rattled by President Trump’s broadside are plotting their own proposals to defuse the risk of getting shut out of the housing market. 
• AbbVie has signed an agreement with the US government to lower some drug prices and invest $100 billion domestically in exchange for an exemption from certain tariffs.
• Merck wants to strike more deals, seeing an opportunity for “multi tens of billion”-dollar acquisitions.
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said interest rates are “well positioned” to stabilize the labor market and bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% goal. 
• Small-capitalization stocks just notched their longest winning streak over their larger peers in seven years. 
• SK Hynix plans to spend $12.9 billion building a new advanced chip packaging facility, initiating a big expansion in anticipation of AI demand.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.         

• @ZeroHedge

• New Documents Detail Jack Smith's $20K Bribe To Informant.
• Wisconsin teenager admits to killing his parents in plan to assassinate President Trump and flee to Ukraine.
• Their Bodies Were Irreversibly Damaged, Now These Former Transgender Teens Are Fighting for Justice.
• Imagine if the Labour Party had taken rape gangs as serious as bikini photos on X. Probably going to jail for saying this.   
• "The Globalist Deep State Is In Panic Mode" After Trump's Cash Cut-Off.
• Mexico Reports Positive Conversation With Trump On Security, Drug Trafficking.
• Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Any Country Doing Business With Iran "Effective Immediately".
• Anduril Founder @PalmerLuckey on China’s Critical Threat Against the U.S. Military: “They’re building weapons that are sometimes better than ours, for a tenth of the price, and 100x the scale.” “The real power of the Chinese military is their ability to manufacture… unfortunately, right now they are very much on the right side of the equation.” “Anti-ship missiles are a huge concern… it’s very hard to defend against them. Even if you can defend against one, can you defend against 10? Can you defend against 100?” “When our aircraft carriers cost billions of dollars, you can justify throwing a lot of missiles at it and it still makes sense, from China’s perspective.” (video)  
• House Republicans Coalesce Around Stock-Trading Ban For Lawmakers.
• On The Lefty-Left's Largely Female Hysteria.
• Stocks & Bonds Shrug Off Trump's Fed Feud; Gold & Crypto Jump.   

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Powell probe rattles Washington, but Wall Street shrugs.
• Trump says Microsoft will make changes to ensure consumers don't pay for power used in AI buildout.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.  
• Asia-Pacific markets set to rise, shrugging off geopolitical tensions and Powell probe.
• Stock futures are little changed ahead of consumer inflation report, bank earnings: Live updates.  
• Trump says any country doing business with Iran will face 25% U.S. tariff.
• OpenAI acquires health-care technology startup Torch.

• @MarioNawful

• ELON JUST CALLED THE EU'S BLUFF - OPEN SOURCING X'S ALGORITHM IN 6 DAYS. @ElonMusk is making X's entire recommendation algorithm public January 17th. Every line of code showing what posts you see and why. Then updating it every 4 weeks with developer notes. This is a direct response to France classifying X as an "organized gang," the same legal designation they use for drug cartels and mafia, so they could wiretap employee phones and demand algorithm access.

• @LauraLoomer

• The only reason why Democrats are speaking out about the Islamic Regime in Iran *now* is because they know once Iran falls, billions of dollars of generational wealth is about to be unlocked, sanctions will likely be lifted, and there’s going to be a lot of money flowing from Iran to the United States and vice versa. The Democrats are trying to get some Iranian donors by pretending like they haven’t spent the last 60 years supporting Islamic terrorism. It’s so transparent. @AOC

• @MarcNixon24

• KEIR STARMER has done the IMPOSSIBLE. He united the LEFT. He united the CENTRE. He united the RIGHT. The entire country agrees on ONE thing: STARMER OUT. Approval below 18%. That’s NATIONAL REJECTION. History-level failure. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• The global influx in illegal migrants was used to destabilize countries, including the U.S., rob the system and the American people blind, and change the U.S. voter map, fix elections, and permanently install a tyrannical communist regime. The 2020 Election was stolen and they almost did it again in 2024. This moment in time is the most important in history. Accountability must follow, justice must be swift. If the U.S. falls, the rest of the world will follow. It's time to come together, stand up, speak up, and fight back. Your country literally depends on it. (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• This cannot stand. It'll be hard to describe the level of betrayal voters like me will feel for being forced to fund, yet again, with no strings attached, this monstruous organization which has targeted us all so ruthlessly and so systematically with our own tax money.

• @WallStreetApes

• Former Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann says that Minnesota Democrats create inflated budgets so they can launder the extra money as grants to their friend’s NGOs. “Here's the dirty secret that people don't understand about Minnesota. Progressive lawmakers have been inflating Minnesota's budget so they can create grants to fund nonprofits. That ultimately are for their friends, for their supporters, for their constituent groups. (video)

• @TomFitton

• Curious: Bill and Hillary Clinton's law firm was recently hired as "outside counsel" by Powell.

• @HustleBitch_

• DARPA HAS AN INVISIBLE WEAPON THAT COOKS YOU ALIVE - AND IT’S ALREADY BEING USED ON PEOPLE WHO CAN’T PROVE IT. The Active Denial System is real. A silent directed-energy weapon with DARPA fingerprints all over it, built to override the human nervous system by convincing your body it’s being burned alive from the inside, triggering panic, paralysis, vomiting, loss of motor control, and collapse without bullets, sound, marks, or evidence - the perfect weapon if you don’t want witnesses or accountability. (video)

• @ScottPresler

• If I wanted to commit large-scale voter fraud, I would Open the border Allow in millions of illegal aliens Give Driver’s Licenses to illegal aliens Register anyone w/ a DL to vote Mail a ballot to every registered voter Hide voter rolls from the DOJ Allow 1 voter to vouch for 8 others. Pass the SAVE Act!

• @mattvanswol

• An absolutely MASSIVE mural for Iryna Zarutska has just been unveiled in Los Angeles. ...truly unbelievable. Elon Musk and Eoghan McCabe kept their promise to fund these all over the country. YOU HAVE NOT BEEN FORGOTTEN IRYNA!!!!!! (video)

• @elonmusk

• How dumb is it that we cant pass secure voting laws when we have the House, Senate and the Presidency? -@GuntherEagleman. Suicidally dumb.

• @RWMaloneMD

• This is shocking - and yet can we be any more shocked about what is going on with our food supply at this point in time? This also implies that probably all of our produce is being sprayed with pesticides in warehouses or the stores themselves. This is most likely a widespread practice. Buyer beware doesn't even begin to cover such malfeasance.

• @LightOnLiberty

• Sidney Powell exposed that Peter Neffenger, President of Smartmatic, was sitting on Biden’s Presidential Transition Team and that MILLIONS of votes was shifted from President Trump to Biden from their software designed to do exactly that. (video)

• @GuntherEagleman

• For your reference. GOP Senators NOT Supporting the SAVE Act. (list)

• @redpilldispensr

• Move along, nothing to see here. Just one of Bill Gates' gigantic megayachts. The same Bill Gates who owns a fleet of private jets. The same Bill Gates who owns half a dozen mansions. The same Bill Gates who wants you to swap you car for a bicycle and your steak for lab-grown meat to stop climate change. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%. 
• Gold 4,606.4 USD/t oz. -.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.1 +1.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.18% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.47% +5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.