Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Tariff Ruling Uncertainty, US/Iran Tensions, Sector Rotation, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.6 +.9%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.28 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 +1.4%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 130.7 +2.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 +.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.8 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.4 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -1.1 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +18.0% -.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.14 +.08:  Growth Rate +15.9% unch., P/E 22.1 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -10.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.66 +.35: Growth Rate +19.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.6 -.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 62.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.6 +1.3% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.6% +.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.3% +.2 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 72.8% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 59.2%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -261 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long