Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 -1.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .21 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.25 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 127.3 -1.8%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 +.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +8.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.2 +.8 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.1 +.4 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(26 of 500 reporting) +17.6% -.4 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.33 +.19: Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% -14.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 490.01 +.35: Growth Rate +19.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.5
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 -6.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 59.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.8 -.5%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.9% -.7 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% +2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 -5.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 80.3% (+7.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 67.0%(+7.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +60 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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