Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.0 -.2%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .18 -9.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.31 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.8 -.06%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.6 +.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 +.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.8 -3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -4.6 points 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +31.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.94 +.63:  Growth Rate +15.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 488.86 +2.10: Growth Rate +19.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 64.0 basis points (2s/10s) -5.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.6 +1.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.5% -1.6 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.19% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 72.7% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 60.7%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,286 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +62 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long