Thursday, January 22, 2026

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Diminished US/Greenland Angst, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.4 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.21 -5.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.2 -2.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 125.1 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.2 +.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.2 +7.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.9 -3.0 points 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(57 of 500 reporting) +17.1% -1.0 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.30 +.13:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.18% -12.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.47 -.23: Growth Rate +19.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 31.0 +.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +13.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 63.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.8 +.4% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.9% -1.4 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 84.1% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 71.9%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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