Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.5 +.9%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.32 -2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.4 +.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 126.4 +2.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 -4.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.9 -5.8 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.2 -.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.27 +.11: Growth Rate +15.6% unch., P/E 22.4 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.51 +.27: Growth Rate +18.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 +.7
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .84 +4.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 66.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.9 -2.6%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.2% +.5 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +2.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -4.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +2.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 55.4% (+3.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 43.9%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +190 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -84 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +153 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in utility longs and added biotech longs
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
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