Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.2 +.6%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.27 +4.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.1 +.5%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 128.2 +1.3%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.5 -2.8 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -1.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.8 -.8 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +18.4% -12.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 312.06 +.12: Growth Rate +15.9% unch., P/E 22.4 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.31 +.45: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.5 +.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .84 -2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 64.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.3 -.2%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% +.8 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.1% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% -1.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 72.5% (+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 60.5%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +500 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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