Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 +.8%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .17 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +2.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 +.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 126.6 +.6%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.8 -.6
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.5 +12.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.6 +10.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(141 of 500 reporting) +17.5% -2.9 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.28 +.21: Growth Rate +16.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.14% +4.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +20.9% -19.3 percentage points
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 492.90 +.17: Growth Rate +20.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -.7
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 unch.
- US Yield Curve 67.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.9 +.8%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.0% +1.0 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% -1.2 percentage points
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.31 +13.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 70.5% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 47.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -165 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +240 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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