Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.21 +3.2%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 +3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.4 +.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 129.7 +1.9%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.9 +1.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.3 +3.7 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.6 -2.6 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.5 -3.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(37 of 500 reporting) +16.7% -.9 percentage point
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.38 +1.05: Growth Rate +16.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.4
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.21% -5.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.56 +1.55: Growth Rate +19.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.0 -1.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .57 -18.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 69.5 basis points (2s/10s) +6.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.1 -.6%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.1% -1.8 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.3% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +6.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.81 +3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 76.6% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 62.3%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -680 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -80 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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