Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 -1.5%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.28 -1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 -1.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 124.8 +.8%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 +.2
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.3 -1.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +1.3 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.5 -1.6 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.04 +.46: Growth Rate +15.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 485.96 +.74: Growth Rate +18.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 +3.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 70.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.1 +3.1%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 29.0% -.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +2.7% -.3 percentage point
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% -3.0 basis point
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +7.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 49.3% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.2%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +410 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +123 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/financial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
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