Monday, June 28, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note

MOV 2-for-1

Economic Data
Personal Income for May estimated to rise .5% versus a .6% rise in April.
Personal Spending for May estimated to rise .8% versus a .3% rise in April.
PCE Deflator (YOY) for May estimated to increase 2.2% versus a 1.9% rise in April.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on MSFT, AMTD, HYSL, ADP, COP and mixed on HB. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on DE, MMC and mixed on RYVNX, BA, WMT and CX. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on MMM and mixed on AIB, STRA, MSFT, IHG, HDI and WMT. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on TXN, EOG, SSL, TWP, WPI, PGN and SPLS. Wall St. Week w/Fortune did not have any stock recommendations. Barron's had positive comments on HNZ, TEU, ACTU, BYD, HD, BBBY, STN, CHS, COH, YHOO and WSM. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on HD, ADP, MMP and PAYX. InformationWeek has a positive article on CSCO.

Weekend News
Iraqi militia fighters and clerics who oppose the U.S. presence in their country expressed disgust at the recent wave of violence by foreign insurgents that has killed Iraqis, the Washington Post reported. President Bush said the European Union statement endorsing Iraq's interim government and a pledge to help the country realize democracy represent an important step forward as Iraq prepares for free elections in January, Bloomberg reported. State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance, United Services Automobile Association and Farmers Group are lowering car insurance premiums in many U.S. states, and may be joined by dozens of other insurers, the NY Times reported. Violence in Iraq may ease in the run up to elections in January as local security forces begin to take over from U.S. and British troops and people feel they can express their feelings democratically rather than through violence, the U.K.'s top representative said. The Green Party chose a California lawyer to be its presidential candidate instead of Ralph Nader, the LA Times reported. Teresa Heinz Kerry, wife of Senator John Kerry, controls a family fortune worth an estimated $1 billion, the LA Times reported. New Jersey next week will become the second state after New York to ban drivers from using hand-held cellular phones, the Newark Star-Ledger reported. Former President Clinton and Senator Ted Kennedy will get prime-time speaking spots next month at the Democratic National Convention, the LA Times reported. Senator John McCain, California Governor Schwarzenegger and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani will deliver key prime-time speeches at this summer's Republican convention, the NY Times said. Microsoft has teamed up with Sichuan Changhong Electric in southwestern China to develop digital home appliances, said Shanghai Securities News. Crude oil futures fell in New York on expectations the end of a strike in Norway and the restoration of exports from Iraq will add to U.S. supplies that are already higher than year-ago levels, Bloomberg said. The San Francisco Chronicle has an interesting editorial on the U.N. Oil-for-food scandal.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, -1.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.29%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher tomorrow on falling oil prices and Middle East violence commensurate with market expectations, before the handover of power to Iraq on Wednesday. The Portfolio is 150% net long heading into tomorrow.

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