Thursday, June 24, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,140.62 -.30%
NASDAQ 2,015.57 -.27%

Leading Sectors
Fashion +2.13%
Homebuilders +1.83%
Nanotechnology +1.35%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -1.30%
Broadcasting -1.30%
Oil Service -1.41%

Crude Oil 37.87 +.80%
Natural Gas 6.46 +.78%
Gold 402.70 +1.82%
Base Metals 110.06 +1.80%
U.S. Dollar 88.69 -.82%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.64% -1.06%
VIX 14.81 +5.94%
Put/Call .66 -19.51%
NYSE Arms 1.39 +131.67%

After-hours Movers
SIMG +14.75% after raising 2Q guidance.
NKE +2.27% after beating 4Q estimates and announcing $1.5 billion share buy-back.
REY -10.14% after lowering 3Q and 4Q forecasts.
PSRC -4.95% after missing 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q forecast.
VRTY -4.0% after beating 4Q estimates, lowering 1Q forecast and announcing additional $50 share buy-back.
PAYX -3.54% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 05 guidance slightly.

Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on ATYT, BBY, HD, VIA/B, FS, AMD and UPS. Tom Kurlak made positive comments on semis on CNBC, saying they have a lot further to go.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished slightly lower today as violence in the Middle East increased investor jitters ahead of the June 30 handover of power to Iraq. After the close, the militia of Moqtada al-Sadr announced a truce in Baghdad and said they would protect important sites from attacks by terrorists, Agence France-Presse reported. John Mack, co-CEO of CSFB is leaving the company, the Wall Street Journal reported. ITV, the UK's largest commercial tv network, has secured what it says is a world exclusive interview with Monica Lewinsky in response to former President Clinton's version of events, the Guardian reported. Shares of International Game Technology, WMS Industries, Alliance Gaming and Penn National Gaming rose after Pennsylvania legislators and Governor Ed Rendell reached a tentative agreement on allowing slot-machine gambling in the state, Bloomberg reported. Nike said fourth-quarter earnings increased 24% as demand for products including Shox running shoes and Huarache 2K4 basketball sneakers bolstered sales in the U.S. and Asia, Bloomberg said. U.S. President Bush will appeal to NATO to take on a broader security role for Iraq and prod Europeans to reduce much of the country's $120 billion in debt, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my Chinese ADR, security and RFID-related longs rose substantially and my oil-service shorts fell. I did not trade and the Portfolio is still 150% net long. It was a positive for the bulls today that significant violence in the Middle East could not take stocks substantially lower or move oil prices much higher. As well, the bears are losing their main source of pessimism as interest rates continue to fall. It was also good to see the ARMS index rise substantially, however I would also like to see the Put/Call and VIX readings rise more ahead of June 30. I continue to believe the market will consolidate recent gains before a gap up within the next 10 days.

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