Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Wednesday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,184.07 +.23%
DJIA 10,486.02 +.26%
NASDAQ 1,999.14 -.01%
Russell 2000 616.21 +.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,670.94 +.23%
S&P Barra Growth 570.81 +.06%
S&P Barra Value 608.89 +.39%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.78 +.10%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 745.74 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 453.70 -.06%
Transports 3,713.66 -.20%
Utilities 362.35 -.35%
Put/Call .98 +13.95%
NYSE Arms 1.15%
Volatility(VIX) 13.15 -3.87%
ISE Sentiment 148.00 -20.0%
US Dollar 84.68 +.02%
CRB 308.07 -.23%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.91 +.11%
Unleaded Gasoline 165.81 -.07%
Natural Gas 7.53 -.37%
Heating Oil 158.58 +.11%
Gold 428.90 -.07%
Base Metals 129.08 +1.36%
Copper 150.50 -.23%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.42% -.90%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.99%
Energy +1.75%
Biotech +1.44%

Lagging Sectors
Iron/Steel -.71%
Internet -.87%
Homebuilders -1.06%

After-hours Movers
MW +3.5% on strong March same-store-sales.
BBBY +5.5% after beating 4Q estimates.

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on AIG and DELL.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Goldman Sachs CEO Paulson said his analysts are “totally independent” from energy traders, responding to criticism about a Goldman oil report on the last day of the first quarter that helped send prices higher by suggesting crude may rise as high as $105/bbl.
- Shares of Archer Daniels Midland fell more than 12%, the biggest decline since 1987, on concern that a drop in the price of ethanol will erode the company’s earnings.
- Investors would be able to obtain the disciplinary history of stockbrokers on the Internet under legislation approved today by the US House of Representatives.
- Dell repeated its first-quarter profit and sales forecast and said it plans to spend $2 billion on a stock buyback this quarter.
- Bed Bath & Beyond, the largest US home-furnishing retailer, said fourth-quarter net income rose to $181 million, helped by new stores.
- Russia, which defaulted on $40 billion of domestic bonds in 1998, said it may pay back its entire $110 billion of foreign debt as soon as 2007 as record oil prices swell government revenue.

New York Post:
- New York City police issued 51% more tickets to drivers for talking on hand-held mobile phones in the first four months of fiscal 2005 than a year earlier.

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks finished most higher today as optimism over lower long-term interest rates more than offset worries over slowing growth. The Portfolio finished higher on gains in my Chinese ADR shorts, Computer longs, Retail longs and Energy longs. I took profits in a few trading longs in the afternoon and added a few new shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio market neutral. The tone of the market weakened into the afternoon as the advance/decline fell to its lows of the day, sector performance was mixed and volume was modest. Energy-related stocks outperformed into the afternoon, while Homebuilding shares underperformed and measures of investor anxiety were lower. Overall, today’s market action was slightly negative, considering the drop in long-term interest rates, stabilizing energy prices and the market’s oversold state. I plan to remain relatively conservative until the major indices break from the recent trading range. I suspect this will come during earnings season.

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