Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Stocks Higher Mid-day on Fed "Pause" Hopes

Indices
S&P 500 1,271.67 +.92%
DJIA 10,871.43 +.95%
NASDAQ 2,271.69 +.48%
Russell 2000 692.25 +.39%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,723.49 +.75%
S&P Barra Growth 607.62 +.74%
S&P Barra Value 659.26 +.97%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 597.22 +.96%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 787.65 +.92%
Morgan Stanley Technology 537.72 +.38%
Transports 4,095.84 +.12%
Utilities 412.73 +1.22%
Put/Call .59 -14.49%
NYSE Arms .59 -27.06%
Volatility(VIX) 10.92 -4.80%
ISE Sentiment 181.00 -12.56%
US Dollar 90.27 -.06%
CRB 335.58 +.56%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.50 +.33%
Unleaded Gasoline 164.90 +.13%
Natural Gas 15.36 +3.63%
Heating Oil 183.25 +3.39%
Gold 524.80 -1.26%
Base Metals 153.38 +1.06%
Copper 202.00 +1.71%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.52% -.39%

Leading Sectors
Restaurants +1.88%
Drugs +1.59%
Homebuilders +1.31%

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -1.09%
Oil Tankers -1.16%
Gaming -1.20%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Medical longs, Retail longs and Medical Information System longs. I added to my ELOS long this morning and added to an existing short, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are higher and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Overall, today’s market action is slightly negative considering the Fed removed the word “accommodative” from their description of the current level of rates. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.3% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.3% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April, and it's the 32nd week in a row that the index has risen 3% or more. I continue to believe retail will outperform through year-end. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index (MVRX) has returned 13% since late October versus a 7% gain for the S&P 500. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close as higher energy prices offsets optimism the Fed is closer to a “pause.”

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