S&P 500 1,258.99 +.07%
DJIA 10,815.40 +.18%
NASDAQ 2,228.07 -.04%
Russell 2000 681.61 +.23%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,603.29 +.10%
S&P Barra Growth 601.88 -.03%
S&P Barra Value 652.92 +.18%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 597.10 -.01%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 793.56 +.42%
Morgan Stanley Technology 527.55 -.31%
Transports 4,264.08 +.95%
Utilities 408.33 +.32%
Put/Call .86 +2.38%
NYSE Arms .98 -12.44%
Volatility(VIX) 11.30 -.44%
ISE Sentiment 175.00 -11.62%
US Dollar 91.10 -.12%
CRB 329.13 -.06%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.20 +.64%
Unleaded Gasoline 165.00 +3.70%
Natural Gas 11.26 -3.15%
Heating Oil 170.50 +1.19%
Gold 518.00 +.33%
Base Metals 152.98 -.52%
Copper 204.40 -1.21%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.37% -.05%
Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +1.37%
Airlines +1.32%
Steel +1.18%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -.66%
Oil Service -.92%
Tobacco -1.25%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Medical longs and Computer longs. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is neutral considering positive economic data and lower natural gas prices. The AAII % Bulls fell to 37.30% this week from 41.03% the prior week. This reading is still at below-average levels and has declined 21.3 percentage points in seven weeks. The percentage bears rose to 36.51% from 28.21% the prior week. This reading is now at above-average levels and has increased 20.5 percentage points in five weeks. I expect bullish sentiment to rise modestly next week. My sense is that many funds that have been badly burned in recent Januarys have cut long exposure over the past few weeks. The fact that bullishness has declined to this extent with the market near a four-year high bodes very well for another push higher during first quarter 2006. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering, more optimism and seasonal strength.
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