* Notwithstanding historical individual investor pessimism, corporate insiders continue to buy their own stocks.
The AAII percentage of bulls dropped to 19.6% this week from 25.7% the prior week. This reading is now at a very depressed level. The AAII percentage of bears rose to 58.9% this week from 55.2% the prior week. This reading is now at an extraordinarily elevated level. The last time the AAII % Bears was this high was October 18, 1990 after
As well, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently at 49.7%, also an extraordinarily elevated level. It has only been higher one other period in its history, which was September 1990-December 1990. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% right near the major bear market low during 2002. It is astonishing that the 10-week moving average of the % bears is currently 6.7 percentage points greater than at any time during the bubble bursting meltdown of 2000-2003, which was arguably the worst stock market decline since the Great Depression.
Furthermore, the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 39.7%, also an extraordinarily elevated level seen during only one other period since tracking began in the 80s. That period was October 1990-July 1991, right near another major stock market bottom. The extreme reading of the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears during that period peaked at 41.6% on Jan. 31, 1991. The current reading of 39.7% is above the peak during the 2000-2003 bear market, which was 38.1% on April 10, 2003. I find this even more astonishing, notwithstanding the recent pullback, given that the S&P 500 is currently 94.1% higher from the October 2002 major bear market lows and 9.2% off its recent record high.Individual investor pessimism towards US stocks is currently deep-seated and historical in nature, which bodes very well for further outsized gains over the intermediate-term. This is just more evidence of the current “