Thursday, January 03, 2008

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- EDP-Energias de Portugal SA said GE Energy Financial Services and Wachovia Investment Holdings LLC agreed to invest in four wind energy farms that Portugal’s biggest electricity provider is developing in the US. The investors will spend $260 million on the wind projects this year, adding to $340 million they invested in 2007, EDP said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Oil prices only briefly touched $100 a barrel yesterday, but a prolonged stay at that level could soften the world’s strong economic growth.
- Oil’s Surge Reshapes the World. The surging price of oil, from just over $10 a barrel a decade ago to $100 yesterday, is altering the wealth and influence of nations and industries around the world.

NY Times:
- Practicing the Subtle Sell of Placing Products on Webisodes.
- Netflix(NFLX) Partners with LG to Bring Movies Straight to TV.

MarketWatch.com:
- Stocks look better than gold for 2008.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Junk Bonds: A Brighter 2008? S&P thinks high-yield issues could be a good investment in the coming year, as investors shake off their aversions to risk.

CNNMoney.com:
- Analyst: Citi has ‘enormous earnings power’
- Fed to investors: More cuts coming. Ben Bernanke and other Fed members say ‘substantial easing’ may be needed.

SmartMoney.com:
- Mutual Fund Report Card for 2007.

IBD:
- Upturn in Biotech Spending Drives Covance’s(CVD) Growth.

USA Today.com:
- New-generation GPS offers a lot more than maps, traffic data.

Reuters:
- Post-holiday discounts and shoppers redeeming gift cards helped boost retail sales 14% for the last full week of December. ShopperTrak RCT, which tracks sales at more than 50,000 US retail locations, also found that retail traffic rose 7% over a year ago during the week ended December 29.
- OPEC may raise output at Feb. 1 meeting.


Financial Times:
- Is “quant” a busted flush? Since last summer’s crisis, when fund managers following quantitative strategies started claming black swans, most have suffered net outflows, while many weaker funds have been badly hurt. Even where money has stayed put, no fund-of-funds manager or other investor is looking at quant in quite the same way.
- Stock exchanges outside the US – including the London Stock Exchange – could provide direct trading access to US investors through US-based brokers for the first time under proposals being prepared by the SEC.
- This year could see consolidation in the US airlines industry, with the fate of Delta Air Lines(DAL) likely to prove pivotal, executives, bankers and investors say.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (GPS), target raised to $25.
- Maintain Buy on (MAN), target $90.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.5% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.27%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (TXI)/.88
- (MON)/.35
- (SONC)/.21
- (FINL)/-.15
- (GPN)/.45
- (BBBY)/.52

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to fall to 345K versus 349K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2675K versus 2713K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Factory Orders for November are estimated to rise .5% versus a .5% gain in October.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory drawdown of -2,175,000 barrels versus a -3,299,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by 1,750,000 barrels versus a 636,000 barrel increase the prior week. Distillate supplies are expected to fall by -250,000 barrels versus a -2,768,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise .5% versus a .25% increase the prior week.

Afternoon:
- Total Vehicle Sales for December are estimated to fall to 16.0M versus 16.2M in November.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Challenger Job Cuts report and ADP Employment Change report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial shares and airline stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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