Thursday, March 13, 2008

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The dollar’s record-breaking slide may trigger the first coordinated effort to shore up the currency in 13 years, according to strategies at Morgan Stanley(MS) and Goldman Sachs(GS).
- Yields on agency mortgage-backed securities relative to US Treasuries narrowed for a third day, as concerns eased about how much credit-market losses will hurt financial companies. The difference in yields on the Bloomberg index for Fannie Mae’s current-coupon, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year government notes declined about 3 basis points, to 203 basis points, or 34 basis points less than the high reached last week. The spread helps determine interest rates on new prime home mortgages of $417,000 or less.
- BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia’s largest steelmaker, rose 6.9%, the most in almost two months in Sydney trading after predicting “stronger” global prices for the alloy. China’s steel exports will fall “significantly” this year, and India may import the alloy, the Melbourne-based company said today.
- Crude oil dropped from a record in NY on concern that the rally in energy prices may reduce demand at a time of increasing stockpiles. US crude stockpile last week roe more than analysts estimates, while gasoline supplies jumped to the highest since 1993.

Wall Street Journal:
- AOL Buys Into Social Networking. Deal for Bebo Aims to Turn Laggard at Time Warner Into Ad-Focused Hot Spot.
- Carlyle Fund in Free Fall As Its Banks Get Nervous.

MarketWatch.com:
- Visa Inc.’s $16 billion IPO oversubscribed, analyst says.
- End of subprime write-downs in sight, S&P says.
- Google(GOOG), seeking to diversify, looks to government contracts.

BusinessWeek.com:
- The iPod Touch: Apple’s(AAPL) Sleeper Device. The new flagship of the iPod line could be the harbinger of new products that blur the line between computers and consumer electronics.
- VMware(VMW) Beefs Up Its Bench. CEO Diane Greene is assembling a crack team of executives to help the virtualization-software marker tackle new economic and competitive pressures.
- How a Michigan Do-Over Would Hurt Obama. A June contest would take a legion of college students out of the mix and pump up older, blue-collar Clinton supporters.

CNNMoney.com:
- Who gets rich off $3 gas – who doesn’t. The guy running the service station makes just a few cents, while crude oil producers take the biggest chunk.

Reuters:
- US video game sales soar 34% in February.
- Total US money market mutual fund assets increased by $6.46 billion to $3.454 trillion in the week ended March 12.

Financial Times:
- American International Group(AIG) is urging regulators to change controversial accounting rules on asset valuations to stem the tide of writedowns that have wreaked havoc on Wall Street. Martin Sullivan, AIG’s CEO said that “mark-to-market” rules forces companies to recognize losses even when they had no intention of selling assets at the current prices. The practice created a vicious circle whereby companies recorded huge losses, lost investors’ confidence and were then forced to raise funds at unfavorable prices.
- An unforgiving eye: Bankers cry foul over fair value accounting rules.

TimesOnline:
- London’s embattled hedge fund community is bracing for a spate of blow-ups in the wake of yesterday’s $16 billion debt default by Carlyle Capital Corporation. Numerous small start-up credit hedge funds, managing between $10 million and $200 million of assets, are facing a funding squeeze. The prime brokers that provide credit liquidity to these funds are beginning to withdraw financial support or heavily increase their margin calls.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (AMZN), target $97.
- Maintained Buy on (MENT), target $15.
- Reiterated Buy on (MAN), target $77.
- Reiterated Buy on (GLBC), target $25.
- Reiterated Buy on (PSUN), target $14.50.

Think Equity:
- Rated (ISRG) Buy, target $360.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +1.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.22%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ANN)/.20
- (SUP)/.18
- (IART)/.49
- (WCG)/1.62
- (KWD)/.11

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Consumer Price Index for February is estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% gain in January.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for February is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% gain in January.

10:00 am EST
- The Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence reading for March is estimated to fall to 69.3 versus a reading of 70.8 in February.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (DNA) investment community meeting, (GCI) analyst meeting and Lehman High-Yield Bond Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by mining and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

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