Thursday, June 05, 2008

Initial Jobless Claims Drop, Retail Sales Exceed Estimates

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week fell to 357K versus estimates of 375K and 375K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims fell to 3093K versus estimates of 3110K and 3109K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in more than a month, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of jobless claims fell to 368,500 from 371,250 the prior week. During the mild 2001 recession, about 415,000 workers filed jobless claims on average per week. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at a historically low 2.3%. ICSC Chain Store Sales for May rose 3.0% versus estimates of a 1.8% gain and a 3.5% increase in April. (BKE +34.7%), (BJ +13.4%), (JWN +10.9%), (PLCE +10.0%), (COST +7.0%), (ROST +7.0%), (ARO +6.0%), (CACH +5.0%), (MWRK +4.3%) and (WMT +3.9%) were retailers posting notable same-store-sales % gains in May. I expect jobless claims to continue to trend modestly lower through year-end.

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