Initial Jobless Claims Plunge, Retail Sales Above Long-term Average

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week fell to 346K versus estimates of 395K and 404K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims rose to 3202K versus estimates of 3140K and 3111K prior.

- ICSC Chain Store Sales for June rose 4.3% versus estimates of a 3.3% gain and a 2.9% increase in May.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment fell substantially this week, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving-average for initial claims fell to 380,500 from 390,500 the prior week. During the last recession in 2001, which was one of the mildest on record, jobless claims averaged about 415,000. The unemployment rate among those eligible to collect benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, rose to 2.4% from 2.3% the prior week. This is still well below the long-term average of 2.9% and the 3.0% seen in 2002. I expect jobless claims to tick up next week, but continue to trend lower through year-end. Chain Store Sales for June rose 4.3%, which is above the long-term average of 4.1% and up from a .5% decline in March of this year. This is also a large positive.