Monday, July 14, 2008

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Financial Sector Worries and Global Growth Concerns

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs and Gaming longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 3.97% and is high at 28.55. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 78.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.14. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day and is currently .85. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.52% today to 88.11 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is unch. today at 138.48. The TED spread is rising 10.11% to 1.34. Growth stocks are outperforming value stocks by a very wide margin again today. Many growth stock leaders are flat-to-higher on the day. The market is trading as if something will soon trigger another spike in angst, which should provide the necessary washout for a more durable bottom. Nikkei futures indicate a -60 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +9 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.

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